Preview for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
The Mets and Nationals close things out with a matchup of Sean Manaea and DJ Herz, and the pitching lines lean toward New York on paper. Manaea has logged approximately 144.7 innings with a 4.67 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.51, giving him a substantial workload this season. Herz, by contrast, has thrown just 4.0 innings with a 9.00 ERA and a 5.92 FIP, a much smaller and rougher sample to draw from.
Looking at the team-wide numbers, Washington actually holds the edge on offense with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.321 compared to New York's 0.306. But the Mets' pitching staff rates better overall, with a team ERA of 4.14 and FIP of 4.12 against the Nationals' 4.67 ERA and 4.79 FIP. That gives New York the more balanced profile between the two clubs, even though Washington's lineup projects as the slightly stronger offensive unit by this measure.
Both rosters carry some injury-related absences. Boston Baro is listed on the 60-Day IL for the Mets, while Danis Correa is listed on the 7-Day IL and Daniel Duarte is listed on the 15-Day IL. For Washington, Tyler Baum, Levi Jordan, and Drew Millas are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching matchup and the team run-prevention figures point toward the Mets as the side with the more favorable numbers heading into this one, even with Washington showing a better team wOBA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Mets +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Nationals: Yohandy Morales. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.