Preview for Saturday, September 26, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
The Mets travel to Washington for a matchup between Jonah Tong and Connelly Early, two young right-handers with limited but telling track records this season. Tong has thrown approximately 25.7 innings with a 4.21 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.87, suggesting his underlying performance has been a bit stronger than his run prevention indicates. Early, with a much larger sample of approximately 91.7 innings, has posted a 3.44 ERA but a higher WP-calculated FIP of 4.68, a gap that points to some fortune helping his surface numbers so far this season.
Looking at the team-wide figures, the Nationals hold the offensive edge with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.322 compared to the Mets' 0.306, meaning Washington's lineup profiles as the more productive group overall. On the run-prevention side, the Mets look stronger as a staff, with a WP-estimated FIP of 4.14 and ERA of 4.16 that both come in lower than the Nationals' figures of 4.77 and 4.66, respectively.
Both rosters carry notable absences to track. The Mets have Boston Baro listed on the 60-Day IL, Danis Correa on the 7-Day IL, and Daniel Duarte on the 15-Day IL, while the Nationals have Tyler Baum, Connelly Early, and Levi Jordan all listed on the 60-Day IL. With Washington holding the better offensive figure and New York holding the better pitching staff figures, this matchup features two teams whose team-level strengths point in different directions, while the individual pitching matchup leans toward Tong's superior FIP against Early's superior ERA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Nationals moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Mets: Francisco Lindor. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Nationals: Yohandy Morales. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.