Preview for Sunday, September 20, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Miami Marlins against Walker Buehler and the San Diego Padres in a matchup set for a 4:10 PM ET start. Alcantara has logged approximately 206.0 innings with a 3.84 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.15, while Buehler has worked around 143.3 innings with a 4.58 ERA and a 4.54 FIP. On these figures Alcantara holds the clearer edge in both earned run average and FIP, suggesting he has been the more effective run-preventer this season.
Looking at the team-level numbers, Miami's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.318 against San Diego's 0.312, giving the Marlins a slight advantage in overall offensive production. On the pitching side, both clubs share an identical WP-estimated FIP of 4.25, though the Padres' team ERA of 3.94 is lower than Miami's 4.14, pointing to San Diego's staff having outperformed its peripherals somewhat more than Miami's has to this point.
Several injury statuses are on record for this matchup. Jason Adam and Miguel Andujar of the Padres are listed on the 60-Day IL and 10-Day IL respectively, and Humberto Cruz is listed as Out. For Miami, Aiva Arquette is listed on the 7-Day IL, Anthony Bender is listed on the 15-Day IL, and Keyner Benitez is listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the individual pitching matchup alongside the team totals, Alcantara's superior ERA and FIP compared with Buehler, combined with Miami's edge in team wOBA, give the available numbers a lean toward the Marlins, even as San Diego's better team ERA keeps the overall picture fairly close.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ethan Salas. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.