Preview for Saturday, September 19, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
The Miami Marlins head to San Diego to face the Padres with Eury Pérez opposing Casey Mize on the mound. Pérez has thrown approximately 144.3 innings with a 3.99 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.16, while Mize has worked approximately 124.3 innings with a 3.69 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.71. Both marks favor Mize, whose ERA and FIP are lower than Pérez's across a smaller innings workload.
Offensively, the two clubs are fairly close statistically. The Marlins carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 against the Padres' 0.312, giving Miami a slight edge in that offensive measure, while both teams share an identical WP-estimated FIP of 4.24 as a staff. San Diego's team ERA of 3.93 is lower than Miami's 4.12, suggesting the Padres' pitching staff overall has prevented runs more effectively this season even though the FIP figures are level.
On the injury side, the Padres have Jason Adam listed on the 60-Day IL, Miguel Andujar listed on the 10-Day IL, and Humberto Cruz listed as Out, while the Marlins have Aiva Arquette listed on the 7-Day IL, Anthony Bender listed on the 15-Day IL, and Keyner Benitez listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching numbers lean toward San Diego given Mize's lower ERA and FIP compared to Pérez, even as Miami's team wOBA offers a modest offensive plus in its favor.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ethan Salas. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.