Preview for Friday, September 18, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
The Miami Marlins head to San Diego to face the Padres with Tyler Phillips on the mound against Nick Pivetta. Phillips has worked approximately 119.0 innings this season with a 3.55 ERA, though his WP-calculated FIP of 4.78 suggests his underlying numbers haven't been quite as strong as his run prevention indicates. Pivetta, in a much smaller sample of approximately 25.0 innings, has a 3.60 ERA that closely mirrors Phillips's mark, but his WP-calculated FIP of 1.93 is dramatically lower, pointing to excellent peripheral performance in his limited work.
Looking at the team-level numbers, the Padres hold a modest offensive edge with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.311 compared to Miami's 0.317, though Miami actually rates slightly higher there. On the run-prevention side, San Diego's team ERA of 3.94 is better than Miami's 4.10, while the two clubs are nearly identical in FIP, with the Padres at 4.25 and the Marlins at 4.23. These figures paint a tightly contested matchup on paper, with each side showing a mix of strengths.
Both rosters carry notable injury designations. Jason Adam is listed on the 60-Day IL and Miguel Andujar is listed on the 10-Day IL for the Padres, while Humberto Cruz is listed as Out. For Miami, Aiva Arquette is listed on the 7-Day IL, Anthony Bender is listed on the 15-Day IL, and Keyner Benitez is listed on the 60-Day IL. Given Pivetta's markedly stronger FIP and San Diego's better team ERA, the available pitching numbers lean in the Padres' favor for this contest.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres moneyline. Confidence: Strong.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ethan Salas. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.