Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Prediction – August 28, 2026
The Miami Marlins travel to Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals in an interleague NL East showdown on August 28, 2026. WP Baseball Predictor's model sides with Miami, assigning the Marlins a 62.2% win probability against Washington's 37.8%. While this doesn't qualify as a strong favorite designation, the data paints a clear enough picture to make the Marlins moneyline the preferred play heading into Friday's contest.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Eury Pérez vs. Jackson Kent
The pitching matchup is the centerpiece of this analysis and arguably the most compelling reason to lean toward Miami in this game.
Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins)
Pérez takes the mound carrying an xFIP of 3.76, a metric that evaluates a pitcher's expected performance based on strikeouts, walks, and fly balls while normalizing for home run variance. A sub-4.00 xFIP signals a pitcher who is genuinely limiting hard and dangerous contact. Pérez has the profile of a front-line starter capable of suppressing an opposing lineup for deep into ballgames, and that skillset plays well against a Nationals offense that, while productive, has vulnerabilities a quality arm can exploit.
Jackson Kent (Washington Nationals)
Kent counters for Washington with an xFIP of 4.63, a figure that reflects considerably more expected contact and run-scoring risk. The nearly one-full-point gap between Kent's xFIP and Pérez's is significant and represents one of the clearest statistical edges in this matchup. That disparity alone provides meaningful justification for the model's lean toward Miami.
Team Metrics: Why the Model Favors Miami
Beyond the pitching duel, the underlying team statistics reinforce the Marlins' advantage heading into this contest.
- Marlins FIP: 4.09 | Nationals FIP: 4.84 — Miami's pitching staff has been consistently more efficient at preventing runs on a fundamental level, with a nearly 0.75-point FIP edge over Washington.
- Marlins ERA: 3.88 | Nationals ERA: 4.69 — The Marlins' staff has also translated that underlying performance into actual run prevention, posting an ERA nearly a full run better than the Nationals' staff.
- Nationals wOBA: 0.326 | Marlins wOBA: 0.316 — Washington does hold a slight offensive edge in weighted on-base average, meaning the Nationals' lineup is capable of generating offense. However, the pitching and defensive metrics favor Miami enough to offset that gap in the model's calculation.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both clubs are managing notable injury situations that bettors and fantasy players should weigh carefully.
Miami Marlins Injuries
- Anthony Bender (Lower Leg) – 15-Day IL
- Pete Fairbanks (Hand) – 15-Day IL
- Max Meyer (Neck) – 15-Day IL
- Nick Brink (Undisclosed) – 7-Day IL
- Colby Martin (Undisclosed) – 7-Day IL
Miami's bullpen is carrying notable absences. Losing multiple relief arms to the IL can shorten a pitching staff considerably, and if Pérez exits early, the path to the final out becomes more complicated for Miami's manager.
Washington Nationals Injuries
- James Wood (Oblique) – 10-Day IL
- Drew Millas (Finger) – 10-Day IL
The absence of James Wood is notable for Washington's lineup. Wood's oblique injury removes one of the Nationals' most dangerous offensive weapons, which could further diminish Washington's ability to exploit Miami's depleted bullpen in the late innings.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game has its sleeper power threats, and August 28th is no different.
🔴 Griffin Conine – Miami Marlins
Conine is WP's dark horse HR pick on the Miami side. Keep an eye on him against Kent, whose elevated xFIP suggests a greater likelihood of allowing hard contact and extra-base damage.
🔵 Andrés Chaparro – Washington Nationals
Chaparro is Washington's dark horse candidate. Despite Pérez's strong xFIP profile, Chaparro carries legitimate power potential and could make the Marlins ace pay if he gets the right pitch to drive.
Final Prediction
WP Baseball Predictor projects the Miami Marlins as the value play on the moneyline at 62.2% win probability. The Pérez-vs.-Kent pitching gap, combined with Miami's stronger team-wide pitching metrics and the absence of James Wood from the Washington lineup, all point in the same direction. The Marlins' bullpen depth concerns are worth monitoring, but the overall statistical edge belongs to Miami on Friday night.