Preview for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Marlins head to Arizona for a late 9:40 PM ET first pitch, with Ryan Gusto opposing Merrill Kelly in a matchup that offers a meaningful edge on the mound for Miami. Gusto has worked approximately 78.3 innings this season with a 4.14 ERA and a 4.15 FIP, both figures noticeably better than Kelly's 4.97 ERA and 5.54 FIP across his larger workload of about 152.0 innings. That gap in run-prevention marks suggests Gusto has been the more effective and efficient pitcher on a per-outing basis this year.
On the offensive side, the Marlins carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.317 compared to Arizona's 0.309, giving Miami a slight advantage at the plate as well. Team-level pitching marks are close, with Miami's staff ERA of 4.10 and FIP of 4.22 sitting nearly in line with Arizona's 4.09 ERA and 4.37 FIP, so the overall staff comparison is largely a wash even though Arizona's FIP is a bit higher. Combined with the starter split favoring Gusto, the offensive edge for Miami adds another data point in the Marlins' favor.
Both clubs list several players on injured lists. Kyle Amendt and Ryan Bruno are listed on the 60-Day IL for Arizona, while Yordin Chalas is on the 7-Day IL for the Diamondbacks. For Miami, Keyner Benitez is listed on the 60-Day IL, Anthony Bender is on the 15-Day IL, and Aiva Arquette is on the 7-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching matchup and the wOBA figures point toward Miami as the side with the stronger numbers heading into this one.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Marlins +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.