Preview for Thursday, September 24, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs
The Marlins send Tyler Phillips to the mound against the Cubs and Matthew Boyd in a matchup that leans in the Cubs' favor offensively. Chicago's team wOBA sits at 0.334 compared to Miami's 0.317, suggesting the Cubs lineup has been the more productive group this season. On the run prevention side, the Marlins hold a team ERA of 4.11 against the Cubs' 4.17, though the FIP figures flip that picture somewhat, with Miami at 4.23 and Chicago at 4.70.
Phillips has worked approximately 122.7 innings this season with a 3.45 ERA, though his FIP of 4.70 is notably higher, hinting at some gap between his run prevention and the components that typically drive FIP. Boyd, meanwhile, has thrown approximately 119.7 innings with a 4.06 ERA and a FIP of 4.35, a tighter spread between the two marks than Phillips shows. Comparing the two starters directly, Phillips owns the lower ERA of the pair, while Boyd's FIP of 4.35 comes in lower than Phillips' 4.70.
Both clubs carry injury situations worth noting. Aiva Arquette is listed on the 7-Day IL and Anthony Bender is listed on the 15-Day IL for the Marlins, while Keyner Benitez is listed on the 60-Day IL for Miami as well. The Cubs have Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the team-level numbers together, the Cubs' offensive edge in wOBA paired with Boyd's better FIP gives Chicago the stronger overall statistical profile in this matchup, even though Miami's team ERA and Phillips' ERA are both lower marks.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Marlins +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Marlins: Griffin Conine. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.