Preview for Friday, September 25, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Guardians visit the Kansas City Royals with Gavin Williams taking the mound against Noah Cameron in a matchup of right-handers who have both worked substantial innings this season. Williams has thrown approximately 181.0 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.46, while Cameron has logged approximately 172.3 innings with an ERA of 3.92 and a FIP of 3.83. Williams holds the edge on both ERA and FIP, suggesting he has been the more effective run preventer of the two starters this season.
Looking at the broader team numbers, the Royals actually carry the higher WP-estimated wOBA at 0.310 compared to the Guardians' 0.302, giving Kansas City a slight offensive edge on paper. However, on the run-prevention side the Guardians look considerably stronger as a staff, with a team ERA of 3.73 and FIP of 3.86 against the Royals' team ERA of 4.73 and FIP of 4.74. That gap in team pitching numbers is substantial and points to Cleveland's pitching staff performing at a notably better level overall this season.
Both clubs are dealing with reported absences, none of which change the underlying performance data cited here. Jonah Advincula is listed on the 7-Day IL for Cleveland, while Robert Arias is listed on the 60-Day IL for the Guardians and Emmanuel Clase is listed as Out. On the Kansas City side, Luinder Avila, Ryan Bergert, and Christian Chamberlain are all listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the starting pitcher marks and the team-wide ERA and FIP figures together, the numbers lean toward Cleveland, since Williams outpaces Cameron in both ERA and FIP and the Guardians' team pitching figures are considerably better than Kansas City's, even though the Royals hold a modest wOBA advantage.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Guardians moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Guardians: Angel Martínez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Royals: Jac Caglianone. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.