Preview for Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Guardians visit Boston Red Sox with Parker Messick and Payton Tolle set to start. Messick has worked approximately 178.3 innings with a 2.57 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.18, while Tolle has thrown approximately 143.0 innings with a 3.02 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.11. Messick's ERA is lower than Tolle's, but Tolle's FIP is slightly lower than Messick's, making the pitching matchup a close one between two starters who have both produced solid run-prevention numbers this season.
Looking at the team-level figures, Boston's offense carries a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.314 compared to Cleveland's 0.303, giving the Red Sox the edge on that measure. On the run-prevention side, Boston's team ERA of 3.59 and FIP of 3.74 are both lower than Cleveland's team ERA of 3.78 and FIP of 3.89, suggesting the Red Sox have been the stronger team overall by these season-to-date figures.
Cleveland is dealing with roster notes on Jonah Advincula, listed on the 7-Day IL, along with Robert Arias and Shawn Armstrong, both listed on the 60-Day IL. Boston has its own list, with Kristian Campbell on the 7-Day IL and Triston Casas and Kutter Crawford both on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the team wOBA and run-prevention marks lean toward Boston, with Cleveland's Messick offering a countering edge in ERA at the individual pitching level.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Guardians +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Guardians: Angel Martínez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Red Sox: Mickey Gasper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.