Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction and Matchup Preview – July 24, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to New York to take on the Mets in what shapes up to be a compelling mid-summer showdown at Citi Field. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, the Dodgers are the pick on the moneyline, carrying a 62.0% win probability compared to the Mets' 38.0%. While that edge is meaningful, this is not classified as a strong favourite situation, meaning bettors and fans alike should expect a competitive game with plenty of swing potential.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Sasaki vs. Manaea
The pitching duel at the heart of this matchup features two arms with notably different profiles heading into Friday's contest.
Roki Sasaki (Dodgers)
Roki Sasaki takes the ball for Los Angeles and carries an xFIP of 4.63, which represents the higher expected peripheral performance figure of the two starters. xFIP accounts for a pitcher's strikeouts, walks, and home run rate normalized against league average, making it a reliable indicator of true talent level. Sasaki's 4.63 mark suggests some volatility heading into this start, and the Mets' offense will be looking to take advantage if he struggles with command or pitch execution early in the game.
Sean Manaea (Mets)
Sean Manaea holds the edge in the pitching matchup on paper, posting an xFIP of 4.13 — a full half-run better than Sasaki's figure. That advantage in expected fielding-independent performance suggests Manaea is better positioned to limit the damage against a dangerous Dodgers lineup. If Manaea is able to keep Los Angeles's hitters off-balance and work deep into the game, the Mets will have a genuine path to victory despite the model's lean toward the visitors.
Why the WP Model Favours the Dodgers
Despite Manaea's superior xFIP, the WP Baseball Predictor model still favours Los Angeles, and the team-level statistics help explain why. The Dodgers own an impressive wOBA of .335 — a strong indicator of overall offensive production — while the Mets sit at a considerably lower .300 wOBA. That 35-point gap reflects a significant difference in how effectively each lineup generates offensive value on a per-plate-appearance basis.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers also hold the edge as a staff, with a team FIP of 3.92 and ERA of 3.55, compared to the Mets' team FIP of 4.10 and ERA of 4.23. The model synthesizes these offensive and pitching advantages to arrive at a 62% win probability for Los Angeles, even accounting for Manaea's edge in tonight's individual starter matchup.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both clubs are managing notable injury lists heading into this game.
Dodgers Injuries
- Enrique Hernandez – Oblique (10-Day IL): A versatile contributor whose absence affects lineup flexibility.
- Seth Halvorsen – Shoulder (15-Day IL): Out of the bullpen mix for the foreseeable future.
- Chris Campos, Elijah Hainline, Peter Heubeck – All on the 7-Day IL with undisclosed injuries.
Mets Injuries
- Jackson Cluff, Andy Ibanez, Ryan Lambert, Cole Mathis, Eddinson Paulino – All on the 7-Day IL with undisclosed injuries.
The Mets are carrying a heavier short-term IL load in terms of roster depth, and with multiple undisclosed injuries, there is some uncertainty around New York's bench availability and bullpen options late in the game.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every big-market matchup carries the potential for a breakout moment. Here are tonight's dark horse home run candidates to watch:
Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy has the power profile and pull-side approach to punish a left-handed starter like Manaea. Keep an eye on him in any hitter-friendly counts.
Tyrone Taylor – New York Mets
Taylor offers pop from the outfield corner and could make Sasaki pay if the Dodgers' righty leaves a pitch elevated in the zone. He is a genuine threat to change the game with one swing.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor model selects the Los Angeles Dodgers on the moneyline at a 62.0% win probability. The Dodgers' superior offensive production and stronger team-level pitching metrics give them the edge, even as Sean Manaea holds the individual starter advantage. This one has the makings of a close, compelling game — but Los Angeles is the smart side of the bet on July 24.