Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – August 7, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers make the trip to Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in what projects to be a competitive National League West showdown. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, the Dodgers hold a meaningful edge entering this contest, with a 61.0% win probability against the Diamondbacks' 39.0%. Here is everything you need to know before placing your bets.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Sasaki vs. Kelly
The pitching matchup sits at the heart of this game's analysis, and it leans clearly in Los Angeles' favor on paper.
Roki Sasaki (Dodgers)
Sasaki takes the mound for Los Angeles carrying an xFIP of 4.43. While that figure reflects some underlying regression risk — suggesting he is not a dominant ace on this particular day — it is still the superior mark in this head-to-head pitching comparison. The xFIP metric strips out the influence of defense and luck on balls in play, offering a cleaner read on a pitcher's true performance level. Sasaki gives the Dodgers a workable foundation to build a win around, particularly given how well the offensive and bullpen infrastructure behind him has performed this season.
Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
Kelly presents a more concerning profile for Arizona, entering this start with an xFIP of 5.09. That number signals meaningful vulnerability against a disciplined Dodgers lineup. An xFIP above 5.00 typically indicates a pitcher who is susceptible to hard contact and walks, both of which can unravel an outing quickly. For Arizona to steal this game, Kelly will need to significantly outperform his underlying metrics.
Why the WP Model Favors the Dodgers
Beyond the pitching edge, the team-level statistics reinforce Los Angeles as the rightful favorite. The Dodgers carry a wOBA of .334 compared to Arizona's .308 — a notable gap that reflects a meaningfully more productive offensive unit across the board. On the pitching side, Los Angeles also holds the edge with a team FIP of 4.09 and a team ERA of 3.74, compared to Arizona's FIP of 4.47 and ERA of 4.21. Every major statistical pillar points in the same direction: the Dodgers are the stronger, better-rounded club heading into this contest. With a 61.0% win probability, this is not a runaway pick, but it represents a consistent, data-supported lean toward Los Angeles.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Injuries on both sides add a layer of uncertainty, though neither team is devastated at the big-league level for this matchup.
Dodgers Injuries
- Chris Campos – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Wyatt Crowell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Peter Heubeck – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Will Klein – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Sean McLain – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
Diamondbacks Injuries
- Yordin Chalas – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Aramis Garcia – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Lourdes Gurriel – Thigh (10-Day IL)
- Drey Jameson – Hip (15-Day IL)
- Jordan Lawlar – Hamstring (10-Day IL)
Arizona's injury situation is arguably the more impactful of the two. Losing Jordan Lawlar to a hamstring injury hurts lineup depth, while Lourdes Gurriel's thigh issue removes another offensive contributor. These absences compound the Diamondbacks' already-lower wOBA and make it harder to generate the run support needed to overcome Kelly's shaky underlying numbers.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value in the home run prop markets? Here are two names to watch on August 7.
Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy has the power profile to punish a struggling pitcher, and with Kelly's xFIP sitting at 5.09, the matchup sets up favorably for a left-handed power hitter to do damage. Keep an eye on Muncy as an under-the-radar HR option.
Corbin Carroll – Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll has the speed and athleticism that sometimes translates into unexpected pop, and playing at Chase Field — one of the more hitter-friendly environments in the league — gives him a reasonable shot to go deep against Sasaki.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor model's lean on the Dodgers moneyline is well-supported by the data. Superior pitching metrics, a stronger offensive wOBA, and Arizona's mounting injury concerns all converge to make Los Angeles the smart play on August 7. This is not a lock — a 61.0% win probability leaves real room for Arizona to win — but the edges are consistent and clear. Back the Dodgers.