Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction – August 4, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs on August 4, 2026, in a compelling National League matchup. WP Baseball Predictor's model has assessed every angle of this contest and lands on the Dodgers moneyline as its pick, assigning Los Angeles a 60.9% win probability against the Cubs' 39.1%. While this does not qualify as a strong favourite scenario, the edge is clear enough to act on — and the starting pitcher matchup is where that edge begins.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Skubal vs. Assad
The pitching duel at the heart of this game tells a significant story. The Dodgers will send Tarik Skubal to the mound, who carries an impressive xFIP of 2.67 — a number that reflects elite-level run prevention and exceptional command of contact quality. Skubal's underlying profile suggests he is one of the most difficult pitchers to square up in baseball, and that makes him a major factor in the model's lean toward Los Angeles.
For the Cubs, Javier Assad takes the ball with an xFIP of 4.45. That nearly two-point gap in xFIP between the two starters is substantial and represents a genuine pitching mismatch. Assad is a serviceable mid-rotation arm, but facing a Dodgers lineup with a team wOBA of .334, he will need to be at his sharpest to keep Los Angeles off the board through the early innings.
Why the Model Favours the Dodgers
Beyond the pitching edge, the Dodgers hold an advantage across the key team metrics used in WP's model. Los Angeles posts a team ERA of 3.70 and a FIP of 4.07, compared to Chicago's team ERA of 4.09 and FIP of 4.73. Offensively, the Dodgers' wOBA of .334 edges the Cubs' .328, indicating a slightly more productive lineup when accounting for overall offensive quality.
The combination of a dominant starter in Skubal, a stronger bullpen profile reflected in team FIP, and a marginally superior offense creates a layered case for the Dodgers. The model's 60.9% win probability reflects a real but not overwhelming edge — bettors should approach this as a lean rather than a lock.
Injury Report: What to Watch
Both clubs are managing notable absences heading into this contest.
Dodgers Injuries
- Chris Campos – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Wyatt Crowell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Peter Heubeck – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Will Klein – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Sean McLain – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
Cubs Injuries
- Ben Brown – Neck (15-Day IL)
- Juan Cabada – Lower Body (Out)
- Edward Cabrera – Hamstring (15-Day IL)
- Gavin Hollowell – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
- Riley Martin – Elbow (15-Day IL)
The Cubs' pitching staff depth takes a notable hit with Brown, Cabrera, and Martin all sidelined, which could put added pressure on Assad and a potentially thin bullpen behind him. The Dodgers' injured list is primarily composed of relief arms, meaning the backend of their bullpen may be slightly compromised — something worth monitoring if Skubal exits early.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value in the home run market? WP Baseball Predictor highlights two under-the-radar bats worth targeting in this game.
Dodgers: Enrique Hernández
Hernández has the versatility and pop to catch a pitcher off-guard, and with Assad on the mound posting an xFIP of 4.45, there is legitimate opportunity for a hitter who can get to a hanging offspeed pitch and punish it over the Wrigley ivy.
Cubs: Michael Conforto
Conforto is a left-handed bat with proven power who could find a favorable count against Skubal. Even elite pitchers allow the occasional long ball, and Conforto's ability to work a plate appearance makes him the Cubs' best dark horse candidate for a solo shot.
Final Prediction
WP Baseball Predictor Pick: Dodgers Moneyline — With Tarik Skubal's xFIP of 2.67 leading a stronger overall pitching profile against a Cubs squad dealing with rotation depth concerns, Los Angeles holds a meaningful edge at 60.9% probability. Back the Dodgers in a moderate-confidence play on August 4th at Wrigley Field.