Preview for Sunday, September 27, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Arizona and San Diego meet with a 3:10 PM ET first pitch, and the starting pitching matchup clearly favors Michael Soroka over Randy Vásquez on the surface numbers. Soroka carries a 3.31 ERA and a 3.16 FIP across roughly 111.3 innings, both markedly better than Vásquez's 4.01 ERA and 4.39 FIP over about 134.7 innings, giving the Diamondbacks the more effective arm on paper even though Vásquez has logged the heavier workload.
The team-level offensive and run-prevention figures are much tighter than the starter comparison suggests. Arizona's offense checks in at a 0.313 wOBA against San Diego's 0.312, essentially even, while the Padres hold a team FIP of 4.28 and ERA of 3.99 compared to Arizona's 4.41 FIP and 4.14 ERA, meaning San Diego's pitching staff as a whole has been slightly stingier than Arizona's even with Soroka's individual edge over Vásquez.
Both clubs list notable injury situations. Arizona has Kyle Amendt and Ryan Bruno on the 60-Day IL and Corbin Burnes on the 15-Day IL, while San Diego has Miguel Andujar on the 10-Day IL and Humberto Cruz and Yu Darvish both listed as Out. Weighing everything together, Soroka's clear individual advantage in ERA and FIP over Vásquez points toward Arizona in the pitching matchup, but San Diego's better team ERA and FIP and virtually identical team wOBA keep this an evenly balanced game on the numbers available.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Diamondbacks: Jordan Lawlar. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ty France. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.