Preview for Saturday, September 19, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Cubs visit the Reds with Matthew Boyd on the mound against Nick Lodolo, and the pitching numbers clearly favor Boyd. Boyd has worked approximately 114.7 innings with a 4.16 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, while Lodolo has thrown about 96.7 innings with a 5.12 ERA and a 5.83 FIP. Boyd's marks are better across the board, giving Chicago the more reliable arm on paper heading into this one.
On the offensive and team-wide side, the Cubs also hold an edge. Chicago's WP-estimated wOBA sits at 0.334 compared to Cincinnati's 0.306, suggesting the Cubs' attack has been more productive. The Cubs' team ERA of 4.21 and FIP of 4.74 are both lower than the Reds' team ERA of 4.87 and FIP of 4.88, pointing to steadier run prevention from Chicago as a whole.
Both rosters carry some notable injury designations. Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown are all listed on the 60-Day IL for the Cubs, while Sam Benschoter is listed on the 7-Day IL and Connor Burns and Ricky Cabrera are listed on the 60-Day IL for the Reds. With Boyd's superior rate stats and Chicago's better team-wide wOBA, FIP, and ERA figures, the available numbers lean toward the Cubs in this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Cubs moneyline. Confidence: Strong.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Reds: Elly De La Cruz. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.