Preview for Friday, September 18, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
The Cubs travel to Cincinnati for a matchup that features two pitchers who have been excellent this season. Clay Holmes takes the mound for Chicago with a 2.85 ERA and a 3.65 FIP across approximately 91.7 innings pitched, while Chase Burns starts for the Reds carrying a 2.80 ERA and a 3.24 FIP over a larger workload of approximately 151.3 innings pitched. Burns holds a slight edge in both ERA and FIP, and his considerably higher innings total suggests he has sustained that performance over a longer stretch this season.
Offensively, the Cubs carry the better overall numbers as a team. Chicago's wOBA sits at 0.334 compared to Cincinnati's 0.306, indicating the Cubs have been the more productive offensive club this season. On the run-prevention side, the Cubs' team ERA of 4.19 and FIP of 4.75 both look better than the Reds' team ERA of 4.87 and FIP of 4.89, giving Chicago the advantage across the board in team-level pitching figures as well.
Both clubs have players on the injured list heading into this game. Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown are all listed on the 60-Day IL for the Cubs, while Sam Benschoter is listed on the 7-Day IL and Connor Burns and Ricky Cabrera are listed on the 60-Day IL for the Reds. Taking the full picture together, the Cubs' edge in team wOBA, ERA, and FIP stacks up favorably against a Reds team that, despite Chase Burns' strong individual performance on the mound, trails Chicago in the broader team statistics.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Cubs moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Reds: Elly De La Cruz. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.