Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – July 24, 2026
The Chicago Cubs head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in what projects to be a closely contested NL clash. With the WP Baseball Predictor model identifying the Pirates as slim favourites, sharp bettors will want to understand the nuances of this matchup before placing any wagers. Here is everything you need to know heading into Friday's first pitch.
WP Baseball Predictor Pick: Cubs +1.5
Despite the Pirates holding a 53.6% win probability against the Cubs' 46.4%, the WP Baseball Predictor model lands on the Cubs +1.5 as its official pick. This is not a strong favourite situation — the model sees this game as genuinely competitive, with Pittsburgh holding only a modest edge at home. Taking Chicago on the run line at +1.5 reflects the value available on a Cubs squad capable of keeping games close even when facing a quality pitching opponent.
The team-level numbers reinforce how tight this contest figures to be. Pittsburgh carries a superior FIP of 4.03 compared to Chicago's 4.82, suggesting the Pirates' pitching staff has been the more efficient unit when stripping out defense. However, the Cubs are not far behind in offensive production, posting a wOBA of 0.328 versus Pittsburgh's 0.331 — a near-identical mark that signals both offenses are operating at comparable levels.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Boyd vs Jones
Matthew Boyd (Cubs)
Matthew Boyd takes the ball for Chicago and arrives with an xFIP of 3.72 — a solid mark that suggests his underlying performance has been better than some surface-level results might indicate. xFIP strips out defense and normalizes home run rate, making it one of the cleanest indicators of a starter's true stuff. Boyd's 3.72 figure signals he has been generating quality contact suppression and limiting walks effectively.
Jared Jones (Pirates)
Jones holds the edge in this pitching duel, posting an xFIP of 3.19 — one of the more impressive marks you will find among starting pitchers. That number reflects a pitcher who is consistently limiting hard contact and missing bats at a high level. Jones pitching at home in Pittsburgh further enhances his advantage in this matchup, and his underlying metrics are a primary driver of the Pirates' elevated win probability in the model.
On paper, Jones has a meaningful edge over Boyd in this head-to-head, and it is the single biggest factor tilting the WP model toward Pittsburgh on the money line.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Both clubs are navigating notable injury situations that could shape roster depth and bullpen availability.
Cubs Injuries
- Ben Brown – 15-Day IL (Neck)
- Juan Cabada – Out (Lower Body)
- Edward Cabrera – 15-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Riley Martin – 15-Day IL (Elbow)
- Phil Maton – 15-Day IL (Knee)
Chicago's bullpen depth is taking a real hit with multiple arms sidelined. If Boyd struggles to go deep into the game, a thinned-out relief corps could prove costly.
Pirates Injuries
- Tony Blanco – 7-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Jaiker Garcia – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Spencer Horwitz – 10-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Zander Mueth – 7-Day IL (Shoulder)
- Javier Rivas – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
Pittsburgh is dealing with its own roster attrition, particularly with Horwitz sidelined and multiple bullpen contributors unavailable. The injury picture is broadly comparable for both clubs.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value in the home run market? These two under-the-radar hitters are worth targeting on July 24th.
- Michael Conforto (Cubs) – Conforto has the power profile to punish a pitcher on the right count, and facing a charged atmosphere in Pittsburgh could bring out a big swing moment.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (Pirates) – Valdez is an intriguing dart throw on the home side, with the ballpark dimensions at PNC Park always presenting an opportunity for a surprise long ball.
Final Prediction
Jared Jones gives Pittsburgh a legitimate ace-level advantage on the mound, and the Pirates' superior FIP reflects a deeper pitching infrastructure. However, with the gap in win probability so narrow and the Cubs posting comparable offensive numbers, Chicago at +1.5 offers real value. WP Baseball Predictor: Cubs +1.5.