Preview for Wednesday, September 30, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
The Chicago Cubs head to San Diego to face the Padres with Kevin Gausman opposing Nick Pivetta. Gausman brings a heavier workload with approximately 177.7 innings pitched, a 4.51 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.81, suggesting his underlying performance has been somewhat better than his run prevention numbers show. Pivetta, working with a much smaller sample of approximately 34.7 innings pitched, has posted a 2.86 ERA and an even sharper 2.28 FIP, giving him the better marks on both fronts among these two starters.
Looking at team-wide figures, the Cubs carry a 0.333 WP-estimated wOBA against the Padres' 0.313, giving Chicago the edge offensively by that measure. On the run-prevention side, San Diego's team ERA of 3.99 and FIP of 4.27 are both better than Chicago's 4.12 ERA and 4.67 FIP, pointing to a stronger overall pitching staff for the Padres even with Pivetta's small workload factored in.
Both clubs list notable injury situations. Miguel Andujar of the Padres is listed on the 10-Day IL, while Humberto Cruz and Yu Darvish of the Padres are both listed as Out. For the Cubs, Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown are each listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the figures together, the Padres' team pitching numbers and Pivetta's strong ERA and FIP give San Diego the more favorable overall statistical profile, even as the Cubs hold an edge in team wOBA.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Padres moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Padres: Ty France. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.