Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – August 24, 2026
The Chicago Cubs travel to Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in an inter-league showdown on August 24, 2026. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, the Cubs hold a meaningful edge in this contest, carrying a 61.5% win probability against Arizona's 38.5%. While this does not qualify as a strong favourite situation, the model points firmly toward the Cubs moneyline as the preferred play. Here's a full breakdown of why.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Gausman vs. Kelly
The pitching matchup is the cornerstone of this analysis, and it represents the clearest advantage the Cubs hold heading into Monday's game.
Kevin Gausman (Cubs)
Kevin Gausman takes the mound for Chicago carrying an xFIP of 3.56, which projects him as one of the more reliable starters in this contest. xFIP — or Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — strips out defense and luck to measure a pitcher's true underlying performance. A mark of 3.56 signals that Gausman has been generating quality outcomes in terms of strikeouts, walks, and fly ball management. The Cubs' rotation will look to him to provide length and keep Arizona's lineup in check throughout the contest.
Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks)
On the other side of the mound, Merrill Kelly enters this start with an xFIP of 5.23, a figure that raises legitimate concerns about his ability to suppress runs against a capable Cubs offense. That nearly 1.7-point xFIP gap between the two starters is substantial and goes a long way toward explaining why the WP model tilts so clearly toward Chicago. When a starting pitcher's underlying metrics suggest that kind of vulnerability, opposing offenses with strong offensive profiles stand to benefit.
Why WP's Model Favours the Cubs
Beyond the pitching matchup, the team-level statistics reinforce the Cubs' edge. Chicago boasts a wOBA of 0.331 compared to Arizona's 0.312 — a meaningful gap indicating the Cubs generate more offensive value per plate appearance. Combined with Kelly's elevated xFIP, the Cubs offense has a genuine opportunity to do real damage in this one.
On the pitching side, the Cubs carry a team ERA of 4.12 against Arizona's 4.19, with the Diamondbacks posting a slightly better team FIP of 4.47 versus Chicago's 4.76. Arizona's bullpen and overall pitching infrastructure look marginally stronger in aggregate, which is likely the factor keeping this from being a strong favourite designation. Still, the combination of Gausman's strong xFIP and Chicago's superior offensive output drives the model's 61.5% probability lean.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Injuries on both sides could influence lineup construction and bullpen depth.
Cubs Injuries
- Edward Cabrera – Finger (15-Day IL)
- Gavin Hollowell – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
- Corbin Martin – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Hoby Milner – Abdomen (15-Day IL)
- Matt Shaw – Hand (10-Day IL)
Diamondbacks Injuries
- Ketel Marte – Knee (10-Day IL) — a significant offensive loss for Arizona
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Thigh (10-Day IL)
- Yordin Chalas – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Aramis Garcia – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Modeifi Marte – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
Arizona's injury list is notably impactful. Losing Ketel Marte — one of their most productive hitters — from the lineup only further weakens the Diamondbacks' offensive outlook and compounds the challenge Kelly faces in needing run support.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Cubs: Tyrone Taylor
Keep an eye on Tyrone Taylor as a sleeper home run candidate against a Kelly start. With the right-handed matchup and Kelly's elevated xFIP creating opportunities for extra-base contact, Taylor has the profile to capitalize.
Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll remains Arizona's most dynamic threat in a depleted lineup. Even against a sharp Gausman, Carroll's athleticism and left-handed bat give him a credible shot at going deep in a key spot.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor model backs the Cubs moneyline with a 61.5% win probability. Gausman's strong xFIP against Kelly's shaky 5.23 mark, paired with Chicago's superior wOBA and Arizona's injury-impacted lineup, makes the Cubs the clear side to be on in this matchup.