Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – July 29, 2026
A classic NL Central rivalry takes center stage on July 29, 2026, as the Chicago Cubs travel to Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals. The WP Baseball Predictor model has run the numbers and come out firmly on Chicago's side, installing the Cubs as a strong favourite with a 61.4% win probability against the Cardinals' 38.6%. Here's a full breakdown of what's driving that lean.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Boyd vs. May
The pitching matchup presents an interesting analytical puzzle. On paper, the Cardinals appear to hold an edge on the mound, but the broader team context tells a more nuanced story.
Matthew Boyd (Cubs)
Boyd takes the ball for Chicago carrying an xFIP of 3.70. xFIP is one of the most reliable indicators of true pitching performance, stripping out the noise of defense and sequencing luck to measure what a starter has genuinely earned. A 3.70 xFIP is a solid, above-average mark that suggests Boyd has been pitching with more underlying quality than many casual observers may realize. He enters this start as a legitimate stabilizing force at the top of the Cubs' rotation.
Dustin May (Cardinals)
May counters with an even sharper xFIP of 3.22, which represents a genuinely elite level of performance by that metric. The Cardinals' right-hander is the best pitcher on the mound in this game based on the underlying numbers, and St. Louis will need him to be at his best to overcome Chicago's offensive advantages elsewhere.
Why the WP Model Favours the Cubs
While Dustin May's xFIP gives the Cardinals a pitching edge in this individual matchup, the WP model evaluates the full picture — and that's where Chicago pulls ahead decisively.
The Cubs carry a wOBA of .330, a significant advantage over the Cardinals' .304. wOBA is one of the most comprehensive measures of offensive production, and a 26-point gap between two lineups is meaningful. Simply put, the Cubs are generating considerably more offensive value per plate appearance, which gives them a higher ceiling to work with regardless of who is pitching.
On the pitching side, the Cubs' team FIP of 4.78 trails the Cardinals' 4.17, reinforcing that St. Louis has been the stronger pitching unit overall. However, Chicago's offensive firepower — reflected in that elevated wOBA — is enough to tip the model's overall probability calculation firmly in the Cubs' favour at 61.4%.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both clubs are navigating significant bullpen attrition heading into this matchup, which could become a decisive factor in the later innings.
Cubs Injuries
- Ben Brown – 15-Day IL (Neck)
- Juan Cabada – Out (Lower Body)
- Edward Cabrera – 15-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Riley Martin – 15-Day IL (Elbow)
- Phil Maton – 15-Day IL (Knee)
Cardinals Injuries
- Skylar Hales – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Travis Honeyman – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- JoJo Romero – 15-Day IL (Abdomen)
- Ethan Young – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
The Cubs are dealing with heavier bullpen losses, with five relievers sidelined. If Boyd labors deep into counts or exits early, Chicago's depleted relief corps could be tested. St. Louis loses Romero and three others, but the Cardinals' injury list appears slightly less damaging in aggregate.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game has a player capable of changing the outcome with one swing. Here are two names worth watching for longball potential on July 29.
Cubs: Michael Conforto
Conforto is the dark horse pick on Chicago's side. A veteran with legitimate pull-side power, he has the bat speed and experience to do damage against high-velocity starters like May when he gets a pitch to drive.
Cardinals: Nelson Velázquez
Velázquez gets the nod on St. Louis's side. A former Cub himself, Velázquez brings raw power to the lineup and will carry extra motivation facing his former organization. He's a legitimate threat to go deep at any point in the game.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor model is firmly behind the Chicago Cubs moneyline at a 61.4% win probability. Despite Dustin May's impressive xFIP giving the Cardinals a starter-level edge, Chicago's superior offensive profile — led by a .330 team wOBA — drives the model's strong-favourite designation. Back the Cubs on July 29.