Preview for Thursday, September 17, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee visits Pittsburgh for a 12:35 PM ET start with Kyle Harrison on the mound for the Brewers against Wilber Dotel for the Pirates. Harrison has logged approximately 110.7 innings this season with a 3.98 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 4.10, giving him a substantial workload compared to Dotel, who has thrown approximately 35.3 innings with a 4.84 ERA but a lower WP-calculated FIP of 3.06. That FIP gap suggests Dotel's underlying peripherals have been stronger than his run prevention so far, even though his ERA sits higher than Harrison's.
On the team side, Milwaukee holds the edge across the board offensively and defensively, with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.326 compared to Pittsburgh's 0.320. The Brewers also show better run-prevention marks as a team, with a WP-estimated FIP of 3.79 and an ERA of 3.56, both lower than Pittsburgh's WP-estimated FIP of 3.92 and ERA of 4.19. Taken together, Milwaukee's team-level numbers are stronger in both scoring potential and pitching results.
Several injury statuses are on record for this matchup. Grant Anderson of the Brewers is listed on the 15-Day IL, while J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope of Milwaukee are both listed on the 60-Day IL. For Pittsburgh, Braxton Ashcraft is listed on the 15-Day IL, Kyler Fedko is listed on the 7-Day IL, and Jaiker Garcia is listed on the 60-Day IL. Weighing the team wOBA, ERA, and FIP figures together, the overall statistical picture favors Milwaukee, whose offense and run-prevention marks both come out ahead of Pittsburgh's.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.