Preview for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee sends Logan Henderson to the mound against Pittsburgh's Jared Jones in a matchup that favors the visiting right-hander on paper. Henderson has posted a 2.34 ERA and a 3.24 FIP across approximately 88.3 innings, both markedly better marks than Jones, who carries a 4.10 ERA and 3.78 FIP over roughly 85.7 innings. While Jones's FIP suggests his underlying performance has been a bit better than his ERA implies, Henderson still holds the edge in both run-prevention categories.
On the team level, Milwaukee's offense checks in with a 0.326 wOBA compared to Pittsburgh's 0.319, giving the Brewers a slight advantage at the plate. Milwaukee's pitching staff overall carries a 3.56 ERA and 3.78 FIP, while Pittsburgh's staff sits at 4.18 ERA and 3.93 FIP, so the Brewers rate better than the Pirates in both scoring prevention and offensive production by the numbers available.
Roster-wise, Milwaukee has Grant Anderson listed on the 15-Day IL along with J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope on the 60-Day IL, while Pittsburgh has Braxton Ashcraft on the 15-Day IL, Kyler Fedko on the 7-Day IL, and Jaiker Garcia on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the statistical picture points toward Milwaukee, with Henderson's superior ERA and FIP against Jones and the Brewers' better team-wide wOBA and pitching marks compared to the Pirates.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Pirates: Rafael Flores Jr.. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.