Preview for Thursday, September 24, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee sends Bryse Wilson to the mound against Philadelphia's Andrew Painter in a matchup that favors the Brewers' arm on paper. Wilson has worked approximately 34.3 innings this season with a 3.67 ERA and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.00, while Painter has logged approximately 120.7 innings with a 5.59 ERA and a 4.88 FIP. Painter's larger workload gives him more of a track record, but his run-prevention marks are considerably worse than Wilson's across both ERA and FIP.
The team-level numbers also lean toward Milwaukee. The Brewers carry a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.324 against the Phillies' 0.308, giving Milwaukee's offense the better mark of the two. On the run-prevention side, Milwaukee's staff ERA of 3.53 and FIP of 3.79 both come in lower than Philadelphia's ERA of 4.00 and FIP of 3.86, suggesting the Brewers have been the stronger team in both phases of the game so far this season.
Both clubs list several injuries. Milwaukee has Grant Anderson listed on the 15-Day IL, along with J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope listed on the 60-Day IL. Philadelphia has Moises Chace, Adolis Garcia, and Connor Gillispie all listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the offensive, pitching, and run-prevention figures all point in Milwaukee's direction for this matchup.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers moneyline. Confidence: Strong.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.