Preview for Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
The Brewers head to Philadelphia for a matchup that pits Dustin May against Zack Wheeler in what looks like a strong pitching duel on paper. May comes in with an ERA of 4.61 across approximately 140.7 innings, but his WP-calculated FIP of 3.57 suggests he has pitched better than that ERA indicates. Wheeler, meanwhile, has been sharper by the runs-allowed measure, posting a 2.99 ERA over approximately 150.3 innings, with a FIP of 3.54 that is nearly identical to May's, pointing to two pitchers whose underlying performance is closer than their earned run averages might suggest.
Looking at the team-wide numbers, Milwaukee holds an offensive edge with a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.325 compared to Philadelphia's 0.308, meaning the Brewers' lineup has been the more productive one this season by that measure. On the pitching side, Milwaukee's team ERA of 3.54 is lower than Philadelphia's 4.00, and the Brewers' team FIP of 3.78 is also lower than the Phillies' 3.88, giving Milwaukee the better marks in both categories overall.
Several injury situations are worth noting without projecting their impact. Grant Anderson of the Brewers is listed on the 15-Day IL, while J.B. Bukauskas and Sean Episcope are both listed on the 60-Day IL for Milwaukee. For Philadelphia, Moises Chace, Adolis Garcia, and Connor Gillispie are each listed on the 60-Day IL. Taking the full picture together, Milwaukee's edges in team wOBA, ERA, and FIP, combined with a starter in May whose FIP is nearly a run better than his ERA, give the Brewers the more favorable set of numbers heading into this one, even though Wheeler's raw ERA is the lowest figure on the mound for either side.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Brewers +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Brewers: Gary Sánchez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Phillies: Bryce Harper. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.