Preview for Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
The Braves head to Chicago for a matchup between JR Ritchie and Shota Imanaga, and the numbers clearly favor the veteran Cubs lefty. Imanaga has logged approximately 162.3 innings this season with a 3.88 ERA and a 4.77 FIP, giving him a much larger workload and a cleaner run-prevention profile than Ritchie, who carries a 4.50 ERA and a 5.48 FIP across roughly 58.0 innings pitched. That gap in both innings and rate stats suggests Imanaga has been the more consistent and reliable arm this season.
On the offensive side, the Cubs also hold an edge in WP-estimated wOBA at 0.333 compared to Atlanta's 0.312, suggesting Chicago's lineup has generated more value at the plate than the Braves' this season. However, Atlanta's team pitching figures look stronger in the aggregate, with a 3.61 ERA and 4.16 FIP against Chicago's 4.19 ERA and 4.77 FIP, indicating the Braves' pitching staff as a whole has been more effective at limiting runs than the Cubs' staff, even though today's starter matchup favors Chicago.
Both clubs have players on extended injury lists. Rayven Antonio and Starlyn De La Cruz are listed on the 60-Day IL for Atlanta, and Bryce Elder is listed on the 15-Day IL. Chicago has Tyler Austin, Brandon Birdsell, and Ben Brown all listed on the 60-Day IL. These are reported statuses rather than indications of who will play, but they reflect thinner depth on both rosters. Weighing the individual starters against the team-wide figures, Imanaga's greater workload and better rate stats stand out as the most notable edge in this matchup, even as Atlanta's overall staff numbers remain the more effective run-prevention unit.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Cubs moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Braves: Michael Harris II. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Cubs: Michael Conforto. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.