Preview for Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Toronto's Max Scherzer takes the mound with an ERA of 6.07 and a FIP of 5.55 across approximately 72.7 innings pitched this season, numbers that stand out as considerably rougher than what Baltimore counters with. Chris Bassitt has worked roughly 97.0 innings for the Orioles with an ERA of 4.64 and a FIP of 4.45, both marks clearly better than Scherzer's corresponding figures, suggesting an edge for Baltimore in the head-to-head pitching matchup.
Looking at the team-wide numbers, Baltimore also carries a slightly higher wOBA at 0.309 compared to Toronto's 0.302, pointing to a modest offensive advantage for the Orioles as a club. On the run-prevention side, Toronto's team ERA of 3.92 and FIP of 4.08 are both a bit better than Baltimore's team ERA of 4.11 and FIP of 4.15, which tempers the picture somewhat since Toronto's overall pitching staff numbers are stronger than Baltimore's even though the probable starters point the other way.
Several injuries are on record for both sides. Keegan Akin is listed on the 60-Day IL and Blaze Alexander is listed on the 10-Day IL for Baltimore, while Kyle Bradish is listed on the 15-Day IL for the Orioles as well. Toronto has its own list, with Addison Barger and Jose Berrios both listed on the 60-Day IL and Shane Bieber listed on the 15-Day IL. Taken together, the individual starting pitcher figures favor Baltimore given Bassitt's clearly better ERA and FIP against Scherzer's, even though Toronto's broader team pitching statistics are a bit sharper than Baltimore's.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Blue Jays +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Blue Jays: Sean Keys. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Orioles: Coby Mayo. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.