Preview for Monday, September 21, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
Toronto and Baltimore meet with a matchup that leans slightly toward the Orioles on offense, as Baltimore's team wOBA of 0.309 edges out Toronto's 0.302. On the run-prevention side the Blue Jays hold a narrow team ERA advantage at 3.91 compared to Baltimore's 4.12, though the FIP figures are close, with Toronto at 4.06 and Baltimore at 4.15.
On the mound, Trey Yesavage takes the ball for Toronto with a 3.65 ERA and a 4.15 FIP across approximately 93.7 innings pitched this season. Shane Baz starts for Baltimore, and his numbers present a mixed picture: his 4.11 ERA is close to Yesavage's mark but higher, while his 3.68 FIP is actually better than Yesavage's 4.15, and Baz has logged considerably more innings at approximately 173.0. That contrast between ERA and FIP suggests Baz may have pitched a bit better than his earned run average alone indicates, while Yesavage's earned run average looks stronger than his FIP would suggest.
Both rosters carry notable injury statuses. Baltimore's Keegan Akin is listed on the 60-Day IL and Blaze Alexander is listed on the 10-Day IL, while Kyle Bradish is listed on the 15-Day IL for the Orioles. Toronto has its own list, with Addison Barger and Jose Berrios both listed on the 60-Day IL and Shane Bieber listed on the 15-Day IL. Weighing the team-level figures together, Baltimore's offensive wOBA edge is countered by Toronto's better team ERA and Yesavage's superior runs-allowed mark, while Baz's lower FIP gives the Orioles a case built on the pitching-independent numbers. The overall picture is closely balanced between the two sides.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Orioles +1.5. Confidence: Slight Lean.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Blue Jays: Sean Keys. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Orioles: Coby Mayo. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.