Oakland Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – July 24, 2026
The Oakland Athletics head to Minnesota to take on the Twins in what shapes up to be a lopsided pitching matchup on paper. Our WP Baseball Predictor model has assessed all available data and landed firmly on the Minnesota Twins moneyline for this contest, projecting the Twins with a 63.6% win probability against the Athletics' 36.4%. Here's everything you need to know before this Friday afternoon matchup.
Starting Pitcher Matchup Analysis
Jacob Lopez (Oakland Athletics)
Jacob Lopez takes the hill for Oakland carrying an xFIP of 5.31, a figure that signals meaningful concern about his underlying performance. xFIP — expected Fielding Independent Pitching — strips out defense and luck from the equation, isolating a pitcher's true skill level based on strikeouts, walks, and home run rate. A mark above 5.00 is a red flag at the major league level, and Lopez's 5.31 suggests he has struggled to limit hard contact and control the strike zone with consistency. Against a Minnesota lineup that carries a .317 wOBA, Lopez will need to be at his very best to keep Oakland competitive.
Zebby Matthews (Minnesota Twins)
Opposite him is Zebby Matthews, who brings a considerably more encouraging xFIP of 4.54. While not an elite mark, it represents a meaningful gap in projected performance compared to Lopez — nearly a full run of difference. Matthews gives the Twins a clear pitching edge in this matchup, and when combined with Minnesota's superior team-level numbers, the case for a Twins victory becomes difficult to argue against.
Why WP's Model Favours the Twins
The WP Baseball Predictor model's lean toward Minnesota at 63.6% is driven by a convergence of factors across both pitching and offense. Consider the team-level data:
- Twins FIP: 4.49 vs. Athletics FIP: 5.09 — Minnesota's pitching staff has been demonstrably more efficient at preventing runs based on factors within their control.
- Twins ERA: 4.71 vs. Athletics ERA: 5.39 — The real-world run prevention results back up the underlying metrics.
- wOBA: Both offenses are closely matched (Twins .317, Athletics .319), meaning the pitching and injury advantages become the decisive differentiators in the model's output.
This is not classified as a "strong favourite" situation, so bettors should treat it as a moderate lean rather than a lock. The Athletics are live underdogs, but the numbers consistently point toward Minnesota.
Injury Report and Lineup Concerns
Oakland Athletics Injuries
Oakland is dealing with a significant volume of injured personnel heading into this game. Key absences include Nick Kurtz (Thumb, 10-Day IL), Zack Gelof (Knee, 10-Day IL), J.T. Ginn (Finger, 15-Day IL), Jacob Dudan (Elbow, Out), and Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (Groin, 10-Day IL). The loss of multiple contributors across the roster adds further stress to an already stretched Athletics squad and limits their margin for error behind a shaky starting pitching performance.
Minnesota Twins Injuries
The Twins are not without their own injury concerns, with Bryan Acuna, Michael Carpenter, Kaelen Culpepper, and Cody Laweryson all on short-term IL stints, joined by Anthony Banda on the 15-Day IL with a lat injury. However, Minnesota's depth appears more capable of absorbing these losses without dramatically altering their competitive outlook for this game.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for a power surge on the prop market? Here are two names worth watching:
- Tyler Soderstrom (Athletics): Soderstrom is Oakland's dark horse HR candidate for this matchup. If Lopez struggles and the Athletics find themselves in a deficit, Soderstrom represents their best power threat to make things interesting in a hurry.
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Jeffers is Minnesota's top dark horse pick to go deep on Friday. Facing an Athletics starter with an xFIP of 5.31, Jeffers could be primed to do damage if Lopez leaves anything over the plate.
Final Prediction
With a superior pitching matchup, stronger team-wide run prevention metrics, and a healthier roster, the Minnesota Twins are the clear play in this contest. The WP Baseball Predictor projects a Twins win at 63.6% probability. Back Minnesota at home, and keep an eye on Ryan Jeffers for home run upside.