Preview for Friday, September 25, 2026. Schedule and player information can change.
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
Houston sends Hunter Brown to the mound against Oakland, and the innings-pitched workload and run-prevention numbers clearly favor the Astros' starter. Brown has worked approximately 102.0 innings with an ERA of 3.26 and a WP-calculated FIP of 3.84, both markedly better marks than what Oakland's Jacob Lopez has produced. Lopez has thrown approximately 117.3 innings with an ERA of 5.68 and a FIP of 5.30, numbers that sit well behind Brown's across the board.
On the team level, the offensive picture is even, with both Houston and Oakland carrying a WP-estimated wOBA of 0.315. The separation shows up on the run-prevention side, where Houston's team ERA of 4.50 and FIP of 4.63 are both better than Oakland's team ERA of 5.44 and FIP of 4.98. That gap mirrors the difference between the two starters and points to Houston having the stronger pitching staff overall in this matchup.
Oakland's injury report includes Jamie Arnold listed as 'Out', Henry Baez and Leo De Vries both listed on the 7-Day IL. Houston's list includes Brandon Bielak, Jax Biggers, and Drew Brutcher, all listed on the 60-Day IL. Taken together, the pitching and team statistics favor Houston, with Brown's superior ERA and FIP compared to Lopez, along with the Astros' better team ERA and FIP, giving them the stronger statistical case in this game.
Statistical scope: MLB Stats API; 2026 regular season season-to-date; exact statistical through-date not supplied.
WP selection: Astros moneyline. Confidence: Confident.
The selection is supplied separately by WP. The comparisons above do not establish why the model made this selection.
WP home-run candidate for Astros: Nelson Velázquez. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
WP home-run candidate for Athletics: Zack Gelof. The selection uses roster and season-stat inputs; it does not establish a confirmed batting lineup or favourable betting odds.
Predictions are uncertain; no outcome is guaranteed. Check the picks page for the latest available selections.