Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – July 25, 2026
The Colorado Rockies travel to Milwaukee to face the Brewers on July 25, 2026, in an NL interleague matchup that heavily favors the home side. According to WP Baseball Predictor's model, the Brewers carry a 69.9% win probability, making them the clear pick on the moneyline. Here is everything you need to know before placing your bet.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Feltner vs. Gasser
The pitching matchup tells much of the story in this contest. Colorado sends right-hander Ryan Feltner to the mound, who carries an xFIP of 5.01 — a figure that signals genuine vulnerability to run-scoring. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching strips away defense and luck to project a pitcher's true performance level, and a mark above 5.00 places Feltner among the more hittable starters in the league.
On the opposing side, Milwaukee counters with left-hander Robert Gasser, whose xFIP sits at 4.45. While that number is not elite, it represents a meaningful edge over Feltner and aligns well with a Brewers pitching staff that has posted a team ERA of just 3.45 and a FIP of 3.62 on the season. Gasser pitching in front of that caliber of a supporting unit makes him a considerably more dangerous proposition than his xFIP alone might suggest.
By comparison, the Rockies' staff has struggled all year, carrying a team ERA of 5.47 and a FIP of 4.92 — numbers that reflect a rotation and bullpen that have been punished consistently throughout 2026.
Why WP's Model Favors Milwaukee
The model's 69.9% win probability for the Brewers is driven by a convergence of factors that paint a clear picture of team quality. Milwaukee's pitching infrastructure is superior at nearly every measurable level, and the offensive numbers are functionally even — the Rockies post a wOBA of 0.322 while the Brewers sit at 0.320, making lineup production essentially a wash between these two clubs.
When offenses are this closely matched, pitching and roster depth become the deciding factors. The Brewers win that battle decisively, which is why WP Baseball Predictor firmly backs the Milwaukee moneyline in this spot.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both rosters are dealing with notable injuries heading into this game, though Colorado's situation appears more disruptive.
Colorado Rockies Injuries
- Tyler Bell – Shoulder (Out)
- Brody Brecht – Shoulder (7-Day IL)
- Blas Castano – Pectoral (15-Day IL)
- Jeff Criswell – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
- Brenton Doyle – Groin (10-Day IL)
Milwaukee Brewers Injuries
- Sean Episcope – Elbow (7-Day IL)
- Sal Frelick – Shoulder (10-Day IL)
- DL Hall – Pectoral (15-Day IL)
- Kyle Harrison – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Joel Kuhnel – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
The Rockies' injury list is particularly painful given the loss of outfielder Brenton Doyle and multiple pitching options, further thinning a roster that was already stretched. Milwaukee's absences are real but less damaging to their overall competitive structure on this particular day.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value in the home run market? These are the names to watch on July 25.
Rockies Dark Horse: Mickey Moniak
With Brenton Doyle sidelined, outfield opportunities shift in Colorado's lineup. Mickey Moniak is a player capable of making a statement against a left-handed starter, and facing Gasser could present a favorable matchup worth targeting at elevated odds.
Brewers Dark Horse: Gary Sánchez
Catchers rarely top home run prop boards, but Gary Sánchez carries genuine power from the right side of the plate. With Feltner's xFIP at 5.01 suggesting pitch-ability, Sánchez is a compelling dark horse pick to go deep at attractive plus-money prices.
Final Prediction: Brewers Win
The WP Baseball Predictor model backs the Milwaukee Brewers moneyline with a 69.9% win probability, and the underlying data fully supports that lean. Superior team pitching, a stronger xFIP from Gasser compared to Feltner, and a deeper, healthier roster give the Brewers a clear edge. Back Milwaukee at home on July 25.