Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – July 24, 2026
The Colorado Rockies make the trip to Milwaukee to face the Brewers on July 24, 2026, in a matchup that our WP Baseball Predictor model reads as a lopsided affair. With Milwaukee carrying a 74.2% win probability against Colorado's 25.8%, the Brewers moneyline is the clear WP pick. Here's everything you need to know before first pitch.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Sugano vs. Drohan
The pitching duel at American Family Field tells much of the story on its own. This is where the gap between these two clubs becomes most apparent.
Tomoyuki Sugano (Colorado Rockies)
Sugano takes the mound for Colorado carrying an xFIP of 4.82, a figure that signals genuine underlying concerns about his ability to suppress runs regardless of sequencing or luck. An xFIP approaching 5.00 suggests Sugano is prone to hard contact and walks, a dangerous combination against any competent lineup. Facing a Brewers offense at home, this number raises legitimate red flags for Rockies backers.
Shane Drohan (Milwaukee Brewers)
On the other side, Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan presents a compelling case with an xFIP of 3.14 — a nearly 1.7-point gap separating him from Sugano. An xFIP in the low 3.00s places Drohan among the more reliable arms in the National League on any given night. His underlying profile suggests he is generating weak contact and limiting free passes at an elite rate. This is the single most decisive factor in tonight's forecast.
Why WP's Model Favors the Brewers
The WP Baseball Predictor's confidence in Milwaukee stems from a convergence of team-level and pitcher-level data pointing firmly in one direction.
- Pitching staff dominance: The Brewers own a team FIP of 3.63 and a team ERA of 3.44, reflecting a rotation and bullpen that consistently limits scoring. Colorado, by contrast, carries a team FIP of 4.92 and a team ERA of 5.50 — numbers that rank among the worst in the majors.
- Offense at parity, pitching is not: Both teams post nearly identical wOBA figures — Rockies at 0.322, Brewers at 0.321 — meaning neither offense holds a meaningful edge. That makes pitching the decisive variable, and Milwaukee wins that battle convincingly.
- Starting pitcher xFIP gap: Drohan's xFIP of 3.14 versus Sugano's 4.82 creates a massive quality-of-start differential that the model weights heavily when projecting game outcomes.
Injury Report: Players to Watch
Both rosters are dealing with notable absences that could influence depth usage and late-game management.
Colorado Rockies Injuries
- Tyler Bell – Shoulder (Out)
- Brody Brecht – Shoulder (7-Day IL)
- Blas Castano – Pectoral (15-Day IL)
- Jeff Criswell – Shoulder (15-Day IL)
- Brenton Doyle – Groin (10-Day IL)
Colorado's injury list is particularly damaging given the volume of shoulder-related absences. The loss of Brenton Doyle in the outfield also removes a key contributor from their everyday lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers Injuries
- Sean Episcope – Elbow (7-Day IL)
- Sal Frelick – Shoulder (10-Day IL)
- DL Hall – Pectoral (15-Day IL)
- David Hamilton – Hamstring (10-Day IL)
- Kyle Harrison – Elbow (15-Day IL)
Milwaukee is not without its own injury concerns, but critically, their starting pitcher tonight is healthy and sharp. The Brewers' bullpen depth will be tested with multiple arms unavailable.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value in the home run market? These two under-the-radar bats are worth monitoring on tonight's slate.
🎯 Mickey Moniak – Colorado Rockies
Moniak has the raw power tools to go deep on any given night. With Doyle sidelined, he could see an elevated role in Colorado's outfield and corresponding plate appearances against a left-handed starter.
🎯 Gary Sánchez – Milwaukee Brewers
Sánchez is a pure power hitter who can make a pitcher pay with one swing. Facing a struggling Sugano, Sánchez represents excellent dark horse home run value tonight at American Family Field.
Final Prediction: Brewers Win
With Shane Drohan's elite underlying metrics, Milwaukee's superior team pitching profile, and a fragmented Colorado roster, the WP Baseball Predictor's lean toward the Brewers moneyline is well-supported. Back Milwaukee at home on July 24.