Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – August 22, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Chase Field to face the Arizona Diamondbacks in what the WP Baseball Predictor models as a heavily one-sided affair. With Arizona carrying a 69.3% win probability against Cincinnati's 30.7%, the Diamondbacks emerge as a strong favourite in this Saturday evening matchup. Here's a full breakdown of why the numbers point to an Arizona win.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Lowder vs. Soroka
The pitching matchup is arguably the single biggest factor driving WP's model toward the Diamondbacks, and it's easy to see why when you examine the advanced metrics.
Rhett Lowder (Reds)
Rhett Lowder takes the mound for Cincinnati carrying an xFIP of 4.46. That figure suggests Lowder profiles as a slightly below-average starting pitcher when strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run allowance are normalized. Against a Diamondbacks lineup posting a team wOBA of 0.311 — the stronger of the two offenses in this matchup — Lowder faces a genuine uphill battle at Chase Field.
Michael Soroka (Diamondbacks)
Michael Soroka presents a dramatically different profile. His xFIP of 2.95 is an elite mark, indicating that when the underlying peripheral numbers are stripped of defensive noise and luck, Soroka is pitching at an ace-level standard. That gap of over 1.5 xFIP points between the two starters is substantial and forms the backbone of WP's strong lean toward Arizona. Soroka will face a Reds lineup managing a team wOBA of 0.302, making this a favorable matchup for the Diamondbacks' right-hander on paper.
Team Stats and Overall Roster Strength
Beyond the pitching mound, the Diamondbacks hold advantages across the key team-level metrics used in WP's model:
- wOBA: Diamondbacks 0.311 vs. Reds 0.302 — Arizona's offense generates more value per plate appearance.
- FIP: Diamondbacks 4.45 vs. Reds 4.74 — Arizona's pitching staff has been more efficient at preventing runs when defense is removed from the equation.
- ERA: Diamondbacks 4.14 vs. Reds 4.51 — Arizona's bullpen and rotation have allowed fewer earned runs on the season.
Across every major team metric provided, the Diamondbacks hold a measurable edge, reinforcing the model's confidence in the Arizona moneyline.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both clubs are navigating notable injury situations heading into this game, though the Diamondbacks' absences carry more name recognition.
Reds Injuries
Cincinnati is without Julian Aguiar (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), Jose Franco (Forearm, 7-Day IL), Garrett Hampson (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), Brandon Leibrandt (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), and Carson Spiers (Elbow, Out). The volume of absences thins out the Reds' depth significantly and could limit Cincinnati's flexibility off the bench and in the bullpen.
Diamondbacks Injuries
Arizona is dealing with the losses of Ketel Marte (Knee, 10-Day IL) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Thigh, 10-Day IL), two key offensive contributors. Additionally, Drey Jameson (Hip, 15-Day IL), Aramis Garcia (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), and Yordin Chalas (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL) are sidelined. Marte's absence in particular is a meaningful blow to Arizona's lineup, though Soroka's dominant peripherals help offset the offensive attrition.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
🔴 Reds: JJ Bleday
With several regulars sidelined, JJ Bleday could see elevated opportunity in Cincinnati's lineup. Keep an eye on Bleday as a sneaky home run candidate with some extra plate appearances potentially coming his way.
🟡 Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll
Even with Arizona's lineup shuffled by injuries, Corbin Carroll remains one of the most dangerous hitters in the NL West. Carroll's speed and power combination make him a compelling dark horse to go deep, especially if Lowder's command wavers early.
WP Baseball Predictor Final Pick
The WP Baseball Predictor model strongly favours the Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline on August 22, 2026. Michael Soroka's elite xFIP of 2.95 against a Reds offense posting a 0.302 team wOBA, combined with Arizona's across-the-board statistical advantages, makes this one of the clearer calls on the slate. Back the Diamondbacks with confidence.