Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Preview – July 26, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds head to Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals in what shapes up to be a competitive NL Central clash. The WP Baseball Predictor model has assessed this matchup carefully and landed on the Reds +1.5 as its official pick, even while acknowledging that the Cardinals enter this game as the moderate favourite. Here is everything you need to know heading into Sunday's game.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Abbott vs. Leahy
The pitching matchup sits at the heart of this preview, and the numbers tell an interesting story. Neither starter is projected to dominate, but there is a meaningful gap between the two arms when measured by expected performance.
Andrew Abbott (Reds)
Andrew Abbott takes the ball for Cincinnati carrying an xFIP of 4.54, which positions him as the weaker of the two starters on paper. An xFIP in that range suggests Abbott may carry some risk against a Cardinals lineup that, while not overwhelming, has shown the ability to make contact. The Reds will need Abbott to work efficiently and lean on his secondary stuff to keep St. Louis hitters from stringing together big innings.
Kyle Leahy (Cardinals)
Kyle Leahy holds the clear pitching edge in this matchup, posting a more encouraging xFIP of 4.07. That figure indicates Leahy is better positioned to suppress runs against a Cincinnati lineup that carries a team wOBA of 0.307. While that offensive number is modest, it remains slightly ahead of the Cardinals' own team wOBA of 0.305, meaning neither offense is particularly imposing. Leahy's superior xFIP makes him the more reliable option on the mound tonight and is a primary driver of St. Louis being installed as the favourite.
Why WP Baseball Predictor Likes Reds +1.5
Despite the Cardinals holding a 54.4% win probability compared to the Reds' 45.6%, the model identifies genuine value in backing Cincinnati on the run line at +1.5. The key reasoning here is competitive balance. The Cardinals are not a strong favourite by any stretch, and the underlying team metrics reflect a game that could realistically go either way.
The Reds own a team ERA of 4.55 and a FIP of 4.90, numbers that trail the Cardinals' ERA of 4.13 and FIP of 4.19. However, with an xFIP margin of less than half a run separating the two starters, this game projects as close enough that the +1.5 cushion provides meaningful protection for Reds backers. The model does not view this as a game where St. Louis is likely to run away with a blowout victory.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both rosters are dealing with notable injuries that could affect tonight's outcome.
Reds Injuries
- Blake Dunn – Elbow (10-Day IL)
- Nick Lodolo – Finger (15-Day IL)
- Matt McLain – Calf (10-Day IL)
- Tony Santillan – Oblique (15-Day IL)
- Carson Spiers – Elbow (Out)
Cincinnati's injury list is substantial, particularly in the pitching staff. The absence of Lodolo and Spiers puts added pressure on Abbott to go deep into the game, as bullpen depth becomes a real concern.
Cardinals Injuries
- Skylar Hales – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Travis Honeyman – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- JoJo Romero – Abdomen (15-Day IL)
- Ethan Young – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
St. Louis also faces bullpen-related attrition with Romero sidelined. Both teams will be navigating late-game situations with compromised relief options, which adds a layer of unpredictability to the final innings.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for plus-money upside on the long ball? These two hitters are worth targeting in your HR prop markets tonight.
JJ Bleday – Cincinnati Reds
Bleday is our dark horse pick from the Reds' side. With the Cardinals pitching staff carrying some absences and Leahy working against a lineup motivated to support their struggling starter, Bleday has the profile to catch a pitch and do damage.
Nelson Velázquez – St. Louis Cardinals
On the Cardinals' side, Nelson Velázquez gets the dark horse nod. Velázquez has the raw power to take advantage of a vulnerable Abbott outing, making him a compelling long-shot target against the Reds' right-hander.
Final Prediction
This is a close, competitive game with neither team holding a commanding edge. The WP Baseball Predictor model respects the Cardinals' slight advantages while finding enough value in the margin to back the Reds +1.5. Expect a tight, low-drama contest where every bullpen decision matters.
WP Pick: Reds +1.5