Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – July 25, 2026
The Cincinnati Reds travel to Busch Stadium to face the St. Louis Cardinals in what shapes up to be a competitive NL Central clash on July 25, 2026. The WP Baseball Predictor model has assessed this matchup and lands on the Reds +1.5 as its featured pick, backed by a 54.8% win probability for Cincinnati against a 45.2% probability for St. Louis. Neither side qualifies as a strong favourite, making this one of the more intriguing toss-up games on the Saturday slate.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Greene vs. Pallante
The pitching matchup is the single most compelling reason the WP model leans toward Cincinnati in this game, and the xFIP numbers tell a clear story.
Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)
Hunter Greene takes the ball for the Reds sporting an elite xFIP of 2.77, which stands as one of the most dominant marks any starting pitcher can carry into a road start. xFIP strips out the noise of defense and sequencing luck, measuring a pitcher's true expected performance based on strikeouts, walks, and fly ball rate. A 2.77 xFIP signals that Greene is genuinely one of the most difficult starters in baseball to score against right now, and that underlying quality is a major pillar of the model's Cincinnati lean.
Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals)
Andre Pallante counters for St. Louis with an xFIP of 4.03, a figure that grades out as below average at the major league level. While Pallante has the home-field advantage of pitching at Busch Stadium, the 1.26-point xFIP gap between the two starters is significant and difficult to overcome. When a team sends out a pitcher with an xFIP north of 4.00 against one sitting below 3.00, the model is going to account for that disparity heavily — and it does here in Cincinnati's favour.
Why the WP Model Favors the Reds
Beyond the pitching edge, the overall team numbers are reasonably close. Cincinnati carries a team wOBA of 0.308 compared to St. Louis's 0.305, giving the Reds a slight offensive edge. On the pitching staff side as a whole, the Cardinals hold the advantage with a team FIP of 4.21 and ERA of 4.17, versus Cincinnati's FIP of 4.92 and ERA of 4.53. However, when Greene is on the mound, the Reds' overall staff numbers become far less relevant — his individual xFIP of 2.77 effectively elevates Cincinnati's pitching quality for this specific game well beyond what their team-wide averages suggest. The combination of a superior starting pitcher and a marginally better offensive wOBA is enough for the model to tip the scales at 54.8% in the Reds' favour.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both clubs are managing notable injury situations heading into this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Injuries
- Blake Dunn – Elbow (10-Day IL)
- Nick Lodolo – Finger (15-Day IL)
- Matt McLain – Calf (10-Day IL)
- Tony Santillan – Oblique (15-Day IL)
- Carson Spiers – Elbow (Out)
The Reds are carrying a heavy injured list, with McLain's absence in the infield and Lodolo's continued finger issue limiting rotation depth. However, with Greene healthy and starting, the pitching concern is mitigated for Saturday.
St. Louis Cardinals Injuries
- Skylar Hales – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Travis Honeyman – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- JoJo Romero – Abdomen (15-Day IL)
- Ethan Young – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
St. Louis has multiple relievers and roster pieces sidelined, which could strain the Cardinals' bullpen if Pallante is unable to log deep innings — a real possibility given his 4.03 xFIP profile.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for home run value beyond the obvious names? Here are two players worth targeting in HR prop markets for this game:
- JJ Bleday (Reds) – Bleday is the dark horse power pick on the Cincinnati side. Facing a Pallante xFIP of 4.03, hitters with upside have a legitimate opportunity to punish mistakes in this matchup.
- Nelson Velázquez (Cardinals) – Velázquez brings raw power to the St. Louis lineup and represents the best dart-throw HR option for Cardinals backers looking for plus value against Greene's elite stuff.
Final Prediction: Reds +1.5
The WP Baseball Predictor's lean on Reds +1.5 is well-supported by the Hunter Greene vs. Andre Pallante xFIP gap. With Cincinnati holding a 54.8% win probability and the run line providing insurance, the Reds offer the stronger value position in this NL Central Saturday matchup. Back Cincinnati to keep it close or pull off the road victory at Busch Stadium.