Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – September 13, 2026
As the 2026 MLB season enters its critical final stretch, the Cincinnati Reds make the trip to Milwaukee to face the Brewers in a late-season matchup with potential playoff implications. The WP Baseball Predictor is Confident in backing the Brewers moneyline, and when you examine the underlying numbers, it's not difficult to see why. Here's a full breakdown of what to expect on September 13.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds) – xFIP: 3.16
Chase Burns brings a genuinely impressive xFIP of 3.16 to the mound, making him one of the more difficult pitching matchup problems in the National League on paper. His expected fielding-independent performance suggests Burns has the raw stuff to keep Milwaukee's lineup in check, and this start is not one Milwaukee's offense should take lightly. Burns represents a legitimate wildcard in this contest — if he's at his best, the Reds absolutely have a path to victory.
Robert Gasser (Milwaukee Brewers) – xFIP: 4.20
Robert Gasser's xFIP of 4.20 tells a more modest story. He profiles as a back-end starter whose expected performance indicates some vulnerability against quality lineups. On the surface, this looks like a clear edge for Burns. However, starting pitcher performance doesn't exist in a vacuum — the team context surrounding each starter matters enormously, and that's where the Brewers more than make up the gap.
Why WP's Model Favours the Brewers
While Burns holds the advantage in xFIP, the WP Baseball Predictor's Confident lean toward Milwaukee is driven by a compelling team-level profile that overwhelms the individual pitching edge Cincinnati brings.
- Brewers wOBA (.327) vs. Reds wOBA (.307): Milwaukee's offense is meaningfully more productive on a per-plate-appearance basis, giving Gasser far more run support to work with than Burns is likely to receive.
- Brewers FIP (3.79) vs. Reds FIP (4.85): Milwaukee's pitching staff as a whole — including its bullpen — has outperformed Cincinnati's by a significant margin. Once Burns exits, the relief picture favors Milwaukee considerably.
- Brewers ERA (3.57) vs. Reds ERA (4.90): The season-long results back up the underlying numbers. Milwaukee has simply been the better run-prevention team in 2026, and that edge compounds late in the season when games carry maximum weight.
In short, Burns gives the Reds a strong individual performance ceiling in this game, but Cincinnati's supporting cast — offensively and from the bullpen — is operating at a level that makes sustaining a win significantly harder.
Injury Report: What to Watch
Cincinnati Reds Injuries
The Reds are dealing with a notable wave of absences heading into this contest. Spencer Steer (wrist, 10-Day IL) is the most impactful name on the list — a key offensive contributor whose absence further suppresses an already below-average Cincinnati lineup. Jose Franco (forearm, 7-Day IL) and multiple additional players on undisclosed 7-Day IL stints — Julian Aguiar, Sam Benschoter, and Brandon Leibrandt — add depth concerns that could stretch the roster thin in a late-game scenario.
Milwaukee Brewers Injuries
Milwaukee is not without its own injury concerns. Grant Anderson (biceps, 15-Day IL) and Bryse Wilson (back, 15-Day IL) reduce bullpen depth, while Luis Pena (lower leg, Out) is unavailable entirely. Jett Williams (wrist, 7-Day IL) and Freddy Zamora (undisclosed, 7-Day IL) round out the list. Despite these absences, Milwaukee's overall roster strength and superior team metrics keep them as the preferred side.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
🔴 Reds Pick: Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz possesses the kind of raw power that can make any pitcher pay on any given night. Despite facing a Brewers pitching staff that has posted strong team-level numbers, De La Cruz's elite athleticism and pop give him legitimate home run upside in this matchup.
🟡 Brewers Pick: Gary Sánchez
Sánchez is a classic power-over-average hitter who has always carried the ability to go deep against quality pitching. With Burns carrying a low xFIP, this is admittedly a dark horse call — but Sánchez's pull-side power makes him a dangerous option in any ballpark setting.
Final Prediction
The WP Baseball Predictor is Confident on the Milwaukee Brewers moneyline. Chase Burns gives the Reds a fighting chance with his strong xFIP, but Milwaukee's superior offense, team FIP, and season-long ERA create a multi-layered structural edge that the model finds compelling. Back the Brewers at home on September 13.