Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction – August 23, 2026
The Pittsburgh Pirates head to Dodger Stadium on August 23, 2026, for a National League showdown that puts one of baseball's most dominant pitchers front and center. WP Baseball Predictor has assessed this matchup and issued a Dodgers moneyline pick, assigning Los Angeles a 63.8% win probability against Pittsburgh's 36.2%. Here's a full breakdown of what's driving that projection.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Bachar vs. Snell
The pitching matchup tells the most compelling story of this game, and it tilts heavily in the Dodgers' favor.
Lake Bachar (Pirates)
Pittsburgh sends right-hander Lake Bachar to the mound, who carries an xFIP of 4.21. That figure suggests Bachar is a league-average-to-slightly-below arm when it comes to expected fielding-independent performance. Against a Dodgers lineup boasting a team wOBA of .330, Bachar will need to be at his sharpest to limit damage. The Pirates' pitching staff as a whole holds a team FIP of 4.0 and ERA of 4.29, indicating a rotation that has been serviceable but far from elite across the 2026 season.
Blake Snell (Dodgers)
On the other side, Blake Snell takes the ball for Los Angeles and presents a drastically different profile. Snell's xFIP of 1.70 is a genuinely elite number — one of the most dominant marks a starting pitcher can carry. That figure indicates Snell has been virtually untouchable when accounting for strikeouts, walks, and home run rate independent of defense. The gap between Bachar's 4.21 xFIP and Snell's 1.70 is substantial and is the primary engine behind WP's model favoring the Dodgers so decisively. For Pittsburgh's offense, which carries a team wOBA of .323, squaring up Snell on any given night represents a significant challenge.
Why WP Baseball Predictor Favors the Dodgers
The model's lean toward Los Angeles rests on a combination of factors visible throughout the team data. The Dodgers hold superior marks across the board — a higher team wOBA (.330 vs. .323), a lower team FIP (3.98 vs. 4.0), and a better ERA (3.70 vs. 4.29). Combined with Snell's historically strong xFIP against a Pirates offense that will need to exceed expectations, the analytical case for the Dodgers is clear. While this is not flagged as a strong favourite situation, a 63.8% win probability still represents a meaningful edge that the model believes warrants a moneyline play on Los Angeles.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Injuries on both sides could influence the game's dynamics heading into Sunday.
Pirates Injured List
- Jhostynxon Garcia – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Robert Hassell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Ryan O'Hearn – Quadriceps (10-Day IL)
- Endy Rodriguez – Hip (10-Day IL)
Dodgers Injured List
- Edwin Diaz – Neck (15-Day IL)
- Will Klein – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Chris Campos – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Wyatt Crowell – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Kendall George – Knee (Out)
Pittsburgh's IL is notably affecting their offensive depth, with O'Hearn and Rodriguez both sidelined. For the Dodgers, the bullpen picture warrants attention with Diaz and Klein unavailable, potentially stretching the backend of LA's relief corps if Snell exits early.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for a long ball in this one? Here are two under-the-radar names to watch.
- Rafael Flores Jr. (Pirates) – WP's dark horse pick for Pittsburgh. If anyone on the Pirates' lineup can catch Snell off-guard, Flores Jr. is the name to watch.
- Max Muncy (Dodgers) – A well-established power threat, Muncy earns the dark horse designation for Los Angeles and is always capable of driving one out against right-handed pitching.
Final Prediction
With Blake Snell's elite xFIP of 1.70 anchoring the Dodgers' case and Los Angeles holding advantages in nearly every team metric, WP Baseball Predictor's Dodgers moneyline pick is well-supported by the data. Pittsburgh will need a strong outing from Bachar and timely hitting to pull off the upset. Dodgers win probability: 63.8%.