MLB Predictions for Sunday, July 26, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Sunday's 15-game MLB slate is loaded with compelling matchups, and WP Baseball Predictor's sabermetric engine — powered by advanced metrics including wOBA, FIP, DER, Pythagorean Win%, and pitcher xFIP — has processed every angle heading into game day. From a prime-time showdown in Philadelphia to a Milwaukee blowout candidate, here are the top picks and analysis you need before the first pitch.
Top Game Previews & WP Picks for July 26, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (1:40 PM ET)
This is the marquee afternoon matchup, and WP Baseball Predictor's model doesn't leave much room for debate. The Dodgers come in as the strongest favorite on the entire board, with the model projecting a 70.3% win probability for Los Angeles against a 29.7% chance for the Mets. The WP Pick is the Dodgers moneyline.
The pitching matchup features Emmet Sheehan taking the hill for Los Angeles against Freddy Peralta for New York. The Dodgers' offensive infrastructure, as reflected in their underlying sabermetric profile, gives this roster a significant edge regardless of how the pitching battle unfolds. At 70.3%, this is one of the highest confidence calls on Sunday's card and a strong foundation for any MLB parlay.
Dark Horse HR Watch — Max Muncy (Dodgers): With the Dodgers projected as heavy favorites and their lineup expected to do damage, Muncy represents a compelling value HR play in a game the model strongly favors Los Angeles to control from the start.
Colorado Rockies @ Milwaukee Brewers (2:10 PM ET)
The most lopsided game on the slate, and possibly the most actionable. WP Baseball Predictor gives the Brewers a 79.8% win probability — the highest of any team on Sunday — while the Rockies check in at just 20.2%. The WP Pick is the Brewers -1.5 run line, signaling that the model doesn't just like Milwaukee to win, but to win convincingly.
Kyle Freeland takes the mound for Colorado against Jacob Misiorowski for Milwaukee. The Brewers' superior defensive efficiency (DER) and run-creation metrics make this a game where the run line carries genuine value rather than significant risk. When a model projects nearly an 80% win probability, backing the spread becomes a legitimate strategy.
Dark Horse HR Watch — Gary Sánchez (Brewers): In a game where Milwaukee's offense is projected to generate substantial run support, Sánchez offers sneaky power upside at a likely favorable price on HR prop markets.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (7:20 PM ET)
Sunday night's prime-time finale features one of the tighter projections on the board. The model gives the Yankees a 53.3% win probability to Philadelphia's 46.7%, but the WP Pick is the Yankees +1.5 rather than the moneyline — a sign that the model sees this as a close contest where the run line offers the smarter risk-adjusted value.
Will Warren faces Cristopher Sánchez in a matchup between two capable starters. The Phillies hold a slight edge at home, which the model accounts for, but New York's underlying offensive metrics keep them firmly in this game. The +1.5 cushion is the play here, giving Yankees backers insurance in what figures to be a competitive, low-margin contest on a national stage.
Dark Horse HR Watch — Bryce Harper (Phillies): Even though WP leans toward the Yankees covering, Harper in a high-profile home game is always a value target on HR props. His power profile against right-handed pitching makes him a name to watch against Will Warren.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (2:35 PM ET)
Here's one of Sunday's most intriguing against-the-grain plays. Despite the Rangers hosting the Mariners, WP Baseball Predictor gives Seattle a 53.8% win probability — making the Mariners the road favorite. The WP Pick is the Mariners +1.5, which at those implied odds carries strong value.
Logan Gilbert takes the mound for Seattle against Jacob deGrom for Texas. The pitching matchup is a legitimate highlight of the afternoon slate. The model's edge toward Seattle reflects strong underlying metrics across their roster, and the +1.5 pick provides a comfortable margin in what the data suggests could be a tightly contested game.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox (1:35 PM ET)
Boston comes in as one of Sunday's stronger moneyline favorites, with the Red Sox holding a 66.6% win probability against Toronto's 33.4%. The WP Pick is the Red Sox moneyline, backed by Ranger Suarez opposing Kevin Gausman in a matchup where Boston's overall team metrics project a clear advantage.
For bettors building a Sunday card, pairing the Red Sox moneyline with the Dodgers moneyline reflects two of the model's most confident calls of the afternoon.
Sunday's Full Slate: Quick-Scan WP Picks
- Guardians @ Rays (12:15 PM): Rays ML — 61.4% win probability
- Diamondbacks @ Nationals (1:35 PM): Diamondbacks ML — 58.5% win probability
- Cubs @ Pirates (1:35 PM): Cubs +1.5 — Pirates 51.9% but model favors the cushion
- Braves @ Orioles (1:35 PM): Orioles +1.5 — Braves 52.0%, lean toward the spread
- Royals @ Tigers (1:40 PM): Royals +1.5 — Tigers 56.5% win probability
- Padres @ Marlins (1:40 PM): Padres +1.5 — Marlins 51.4%, minimal edge
- Athletics @ Twins (2:10 PM): Twins ML — 64.3% win probability
- Astros @ White Sox (2:10 PM): Astros +1.5 — White Sox 53.0%
- Reds @ Cardinals (2:15 PM): Reds +1.5 — Cardinals 54.4%
- Angels @ Giants (4:05 PM): Angels +1.5 — Angels 52.5% win probability
Final Thoughts: WP Baseball Predictor's Sunday Best Bets
Sunday, July 26, 2026 offers a full slate of actionable opportunities. WP Baseball Predictor's top-confidence plays of the day are the Dodgers moneyline (70.3%) and the Brewers -1.5 (79.8%), representing the two strongest probability edges on the board. The Red Sox moneyline (66.6%) rounds out a strong three-leg foundation for Sunday card builders.
For dark horse HR value, keep an eye on Max Muncy in Los Angeles and Gary Sánchez in Milwaukee — both operating in games where their teams are projected to generate significant offensive output.
All predictions are generated by WP Baseball Predictor's proprietary sabermetric model. Visit wpbaseballpredictor.com for full game-by-game breakdowns, updated projections, and daily MLB picks throughout the 2026 season.