MLB Predictions for Friday, July 24, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor's Best Bets
Friday's MLB slate is loaded with 15 games and no shortage of compelling matchups. WP Baseball Predictor has run every contest through its advanced sabermetric engine — weighing metrics like wOBA, FIP, DER, xFIP, and Pythagorean Win% — to surface today's strongest plays. Here's a breakdown of the games worth watching and the picks backed by the numbers.
Top MLB Matchups & Predictions for July 24, 2026
Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets (7:10 PM ET) — Dodgers Moneyline
This is the marquee matchup of the evening and one of the clearest edges on the board. WP's model gives the Dodgers a 62.0% win probability against the Mets, with Roki Sasaki taking the mound opposite Sean Manaea. The Dodgers' underlying team metrics consistently support this kind of projection in road environments, and a 62-38 split represents meaningful value on the moneyline. This is WP's strongest high-profile play of the night.
Dark Horse HR Watch: Keep an eye on Max Muncy for the Dodgers. In a game where Los Angeles projects as a comfortable favorite, Muncy's power profile at Citi Field makes him a legitimate value target for home run props at potentially favorable odds.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET) — Mariners Moneyline
The Mariners enter as road favorites in Arlington, and WP's model backs that up decisively with a 64.1% win probability for Seattle. Bryce Miller squares off against MacKenzie Gore, and the pitching matchup clearly tilts in the Mariners' favor according to the underlying analytics. At 64.1% implied probability, Seattle's moneyline could offer genuine value depending on where the market prices the line. This is one of WP's highest-confidence picks on the entire Friday card.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (6:40 PM ET) — Tigers Moneyline
Beck Way takes on Tarik Skubal in Detroit, and the model projects a 67.6% win probability for the Tigers — making this one of the most lopsided projections of the day. Detroit's home advantage and the overall team metrics driving that Pythagorean Win% gap make the Tigers moneyline one of the cleaner plays on the slate. At over two-thirds implied probability, this is a bet the model supports with confidence.
Dark Horse HR Watch: Kerry Carpenter stands out as a dark horse home run play for Detroit. In a game where the Tigers project to win comfortably, Carpenter's lefty pop against right-handed pitching makes him a value option in HR prop markets that may not fully price in his upside.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 PM ET) — Yankees +1.5
This is one of Friday's most evenly contested games, with WP giving the Yankees a 51.1% win probability against the Phillies — essentially a coin flip. Will Warren faces Jesús Luzardo in what projects as a closely matched pitching duel. Because the game is so tight, WP's recommended play is the Yankees +1.5 run line, which provides insurance in what could come down to a single late-inning swing. When win probability sits this close to 50/50, the run line is often where the value lives.
Houston Astros @ Chicago White Sox (7:40 PM ET) — White Sox Moneyline
One of the more surprising model outputs on Friday: WP gives the White Sox a 65.8% win probability at home against Houston. Spencer Arrighetti starts for the Astros opposite Davis Martin, and the team-level metrics strongly favor Chicago in this spot. The Astros check in at just 34.2% — a significant underdog projection for a team that typically contends. The White Sox moneyline is a high-value play if the market underestimates this gap.
Additional Games to Monitor
- Brewers vs. Rockies (4:10 PM ET): Milwaukee projects at 74.2% — the highest win probability on the board. Shane Drohan vs. Tomoyuki Sugano. Brewers moneyline is a strong favorite play.
- Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (7:15 PM ET): Boston sits at 64.6% at home. Patrick Sandoval vs. Trey Yesavage. Red Sox moneyline is supported by a clear model edge.
- Braves vs. Orioles (7:05 PM ET): WP lists this as a true 50/50 contest with Baltimore's starter TBD. Hold off until a confirmed arm is announced before wagering.
- Angels vs. Giants (10:15 PM ET): Logan Webb faces Grayson Rodriguez in the nightcap. The Giants project at 57.8%, but WP recommends the Angels +1.5 as the play given the competitive gap and run-line value.
Friday's WP Best Bet Summary
- ✅ Dodgers ML — 62.0% win probability vs. Mets
- ✅ Mariners ML — 64.1% win probability vs. Rangers
- ✅ Tigers ML — 67.6% win probability vs. Royals
- ✅ Yankees +1.5 — 51.1% in a near-even matchup vs. Phillies
- ✅ White Sox ML — 65.8% win probability vs. Astros
For full game-by-game probability breakdowns, run line analysis, and updated picks as lineups are confirmed, visit wpbaseballpredictor.com. All predictions are generated using advanced sabermetric modeling and are intended for informational and entertainment purposes. Play responsibly.