New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Prediction – September 13, 2026
The Subway Series returns to the Bronx on September 13, 2026, as the New York Mets travel across town to face the New York Yankees. With playoff positioning potentially on the line and borough bragging rights always at stake, this late-season clash carries extra weight. WP Baseball Predictor has analyzed the data and lands on the Yankees moneyline with a Confident rating.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Christian Scott (Mets) – xFIP: 3.66
Christian Scott takes the ball for New York's National League entry in what shapes up as a difficult assignment. His xFIP of 3.66 indicates he is a respectable arm capable of keeping the Mets competitive on most nights, but he faces a Yankees lineup that has been one of the more productive offensive units in the league. Scott will need to be precise and avoid any early trouble to give the Mets a legitimate path to victory in enemy territory.
Cam Schlittler (Yankees) – xFIP: 2.68
The clear pitching advantage in this matchup belongs to Cam Schlittler, whose xFIP of 2.68 is a standout figure at this stage of the season. That mark reflects a pitcher who has been limiting hard contact and controlling outcomes at an elite level. Facing a Mets offense that carries a team wOBA of .307 — slightly below the Yankees' .313 — Schlittler enters this start as a significant reason why WP's model leans toward the home side. When a starter posts an xFIP nearly a full run lower than his counterpart, that gap is difficult to overlook in predictive modeling.
Team Stats Breakdown
Beyond the individual pitching matchup, the underlying team numbers reinforce the Yankees' edge in this contest:
- Yankees: wOBA .313 | FIP 3.81 | ERA 3.26
- Mets: wOBA .307 | FIP 4.14 | ERA 4.19
The Yankees hold advantages across all three major metrics. Their team ERA of 3.26 compared to the Mets' 4.19 speaks to a deeper and more consistent pitching staff overall, while New York's superior FIP of 3.81 versus 4.14 suggests the Yankees' run prevention has been genuinely earned rather than inflated by favorable circumstances. Combined with the stronger offensive wOBA, the Yankees present a well-rounded profile that WP's model rewards with a Confident-tier selection.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both rosters are managing notable injury situations heading into this matchup, though neither club appears to be in crisis mode.
Mets Injuries
- Danis Correa – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Randy Guzman – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Ryan Lambert – Undisclosed (7-Day IL)
- Cionel Perez – Forearm (15-Day IL)
- Peyton Prescott – Elbow (Out)
The Mets are dealing with a thinned-out bullpen situation, with Perez and multiple other relievers sidelined. Late-game management could become a challenge for New York's pitching staff if Scott is unable to go deep into the contest.
Yankees Injuries
- Jazz Chisholm – Thumb (10-Day IL)
- Angel Chivilli – Elbow (7-Day IL)
- Fernando Cruz – Elbow (15-Day IL)
- Trent Grisham – Hamstring (10-Day IL)
- Carlos Lagrange – Shoulder (7-Day IL)
The Yankees miss Jazz Chisholm's offensive contributions, and the relief corps has some depth concerns with Cruz and others sidelined. However, Schlittler's ability to work deep into games could mitigate bullpen reliance for the home club.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every Subway Series game carries home run potential, and two names stand out as value plays for long-ball hunters:
- Mets – Francisco Lindor: The energetic shortstop thrives in high-profile moments and has the pull-side power to punish a mistake pitch at Yankee Stadium.
- Yankees – Luis García Jr.: García brings sneaky power from a favorable spot in the lineup and could do damage against a Mets starter in a hostile environment.
Final Prediction
Cam Schlittler's elite xFIP of 2.68, combined with the Yankees' stronger team-wide offensive and pitching metrics, gives New York a clear edge on paper. WP Baseball Predictor rates this pick as Confident. Back the Yankees moneyline on September 13th in the Bronx.