Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction – July 26, 2026: WP Baseball Predictor Backs Los Angeles
The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to New York to face the Mets on July 26, 2026, in what looks like a lopsided affair on paper. WP Baseball Predictor has crunched the numbers and is firmly backing the Dodgers moneyline, assigning Los Angeles a 70.3% win probability compared to just 29.7% for the Mets. Here is a full breakdown of why the model loves the Dodgers in this one.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Sheehan vs. Peralta
The pitching matchup is one of the clearest edges in this contest, and it tilts decidedly in Los Angeles's favor.
Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers)
Emmet Sheehan takes the ball for Los Angeles carrying an xFIP of 3.97. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching strips away defense and luck to measure a pitcher's true underlying performance, and Sheehan's mark reflects a starter capable of keeping hitters uncomfortable and limiting hard contact. Backed by one of the deepest offensive rosters in baseball, Sheehan does not need to be perfect — he simply needs to be efficient.
Freddy Peralta (Mets)
Freddy Peralta counters for New York with an xFIP of 4.26, a figure that suggests meaningful regression risk relative to his counterpart. The gap between Sheehan's 3.97 and Peralta's 4.26 may not appear enormous in isolation, but when paired with the stark team offensive and defensive splits in this game, it becomes a significant factor in the model's projection.
Why WP Baseball Predictor Favors the Dodgers
The pitching edge is only part of the story. A deeper look at the team statistics reveals just how dominant the Dodgers have been this season compared to the Mets.
- Dodgers wOBA: 0.334 vs. Mets wOBA: 0.299 — Los Angeles is generating significantly more offensive value per plate appearance, a gap that compounds over nine innings against a shakier starter.
- Dodgers FIP: 3.91 vs. Mets FIP: 4.10 — The Dodgers pitching staff as a whole has been the superior unit when defense-independent metrics are applied.
- Dodgers ERA: 3.53 vs. Mets ERA: 4.21 — Los Angeles has also been superior in actual run prevention, giving the model very little reason to doubt the Dodgers' edge on either side of the ball.
When a team leads in offensive production, pitching efficiency, and run prevention simultaneously, a 70.3% win probability is well-supported by the underlying data.
Injury Report: What to Watch Before First Pitch
Both clubs are navigating their injury lists heading into this contest, though neither side appears to be missing a singular game-changing piece at the headline level.
Dodgers Injuries
- Chris Campos – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Elijah Hainline – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Seth Halvorsen – 15-Day IL (Shoulder)
- Enrique Hernandez – 10-Day IL (Oblique)
- Peter Heubeck – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
Mets Injuries
- Jackson Cluff – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Andy Ibanez – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Ryan Lambert – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Cole Mathis – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Eddinson Paulino – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
The Dodgers will miss Enrique Hernandez due to an oblique injury, while New York is dealing with several roster absences of their own. Neither list dramatically alters the projected outcome, but confirm rosters are set closer to first pitch.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game carries home run upside beyond the obvious sluggers. Here are two names worth targeting in HR prop markets on July 26.
Max Muncy – Los Angeles Dodgers
Muncy has the raw left-handed power to punish right-handed pitching, and with the Dodgers carrying a strong team wOBA of 0.334, the lineup is set up to create quality at-bats deep in the order. Muncy is a dangerous dark horse if Peralta leaves a pitch over the plate.
Tyrone Taylor – New York Mets
On the Mets' side, Tyrone Taylor offers legitimate sneaky pop as a dark horse HR option. Even in a game where New York is a significant underdog, Taylor has the bat speed and power profile to take Sheehan deep on any given pitch.
Final Prediction
WP Baseball Predictor Pick: Dodgers Moneyline — With a 70.3% win probability, superior pitching metrics, and a decisive offensive edge, the Dodgers are the clear play in this matchup. Back Los Angeles with confidence on July 26, 2026.