Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction & Matchup Preview – July 25, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to New York to take on the Mets in what projects to be one of the more compelling interleague matchups of the summer. WP Baseball Predictor has analyzed the data and issued its pick: Dodgers moneyline, backed by a 67.3% win probability for Los Angeles against a 32.7% probability for New York. Here is everything you need to know heading into first pitch.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Yamamoto vs. McLean
The pitching matchup at the heart of this game features two arms with nearly identical advanced metrics, setting the stage for a genuinely tight contest on the mound.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers)
Yamamoto takes the ball for Los Angeles carrying an xFIP of 3.40, a figure that reflects his ability to limit hard contact and generate favorable outcomes independent of defensive support. His profile suggests a pitcher who consistently gives his team a chance to win deep into ballgames.
Nolan McLean (Mets)
McLean counters with an xFIP of 3.36 — actually a hair better than Yamamoto's by this particular metric. The Mets' starter is no pushover, and on paper, this is as evenly matched a pitching duel as you will find. The razor-thin difference between the two xFIP marks means neither arm holds a meaningful statistical edge on the mound.
With both starters projecting as quality arms, the game is likely to be decided by the surrounding factors: team offense, bullpen depth, and situational execution.
Why WP's Model Favors the Dodgers
Despite the near-identical starting pitcher profiles, WP Baseball Predictor leans heavily on team-level metrics when assigning win probability — and that is where Los Angeles separates itself from New York.
- Dodgers wOBA: 0.335 vs. Mets wOBA: 0.299 — Los Angeles holds a significant advantage in offensive production quality. A wOBA differential of 36 points is substantial at the major league level and suggests the Dodgers lineup is far more capable of generating runs.
- Dodgers FIP: 3.92 vs. Mets FIP: 4.11 — Los Angeles also edges New York in overall pitching quality as measured by Fielding Independent Pitching, indicating a deeper and more reliable staff.
- Dodgers ERA: 3.53 vs. Mets ERA: 4.23 — The run prevention gap further reinforces LA's edge, with the Dodgers' pitching staff allowing significantly fewer earned runs on the season.
While this is not classified as a strong favourite situation, the cumulative weight of these team-level advantages is what drives the Dodgers to a 67.3% win probability in the model.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Both rosters are managing notable injury situations that could influence lineup construction and bullpen usage.
Dodgers Injuries
- Enrique Hernandez (Oblique, 10-Day IL) — a versatile offensive contributor whose absence removes lineup flexibility
- Seth Halvorsen (Shoulder, 15-Day IL) — a bullpen arm unavailable for relief duty
- Chris Campos, Elijah Hainline, and Peter Heubeck (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL) — additional depth pieces sidelined
Mets Injuries
- Jackson Cluff, Andy Ibanez, Ryan Lambert, Cole Mathis, and Eddinson Paulino (all Undisclosed, 7-Day IL) — the Mets are dealing with a particularly crowded IL, thinning their roster options considerably heading into this game
The Mets' volume of injured players is notable and may limit Manager flexibility, particularly in late-game scenarios.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for value beyond the obvious power threats? These are the names worth watching for a surprise long ball.
Dodgers: Max Muncy
Muncy has the left-handed pull power to exploit any mistake pitch in a big-game atmosphere at Citi Field. He is always a threat to change the outcome with one swing.
Mets: Tyrone Taylor
Taylor brings sneaky pop and could provide New York's best shot at a momentum-shifting home run against a high-quality Dodgers arm. Keep an eye on him in key at-bats.
Final Prediction
WP Baseball Predictor Pick: Dodgers Moneyline — With superior offensive metrics, better overall pitching numbers, and a 67.3% model-assigned win probability, Los Angeles is the clear data-driven choice in this matchup. The mound duel is legitimately close, but the Dodgers' team-wide advantages are too consistent to ignore.