Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins Prediction & Preview – September 13, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins in a late-season interleague matchup with potential playoff implications. WP Baseball Predictor has issued a Confident pick on the Dodgers moneyline, making this a game worth breaking down thoroughly before first pitch.
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers)
The Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Emmet Sheehan, who carries an xFIP of 4.00 into this start. xFIP is a strong indicator of a pitcher's true skill level, stripping away defense and sequencing luck, and Sheehan's mark reflects a capable arm who has largely kept hitters in check in terms of the underlying peripheral metrics. As a member of one of baseball's deepest rotations, Sheehan benefits from a well-structured team framework built to support his outings.
Eury Pérez (Marlins)
Miami counters with the talented young right-hander Eury Pérez, who posts an xFIP of 4.03 — nearly identical to Sheehan's figure on paper. This makes for a genuinely intriguing pitching duel on the surface. Pérez has long been regarded as one of the game's more promising young arms, and his peripherals suggest he remains a legitimate threat to keep the Dodgers' lineup contained. However, the paper-thin gap between the two starters means the team context surrounding each pitcher becomes the crucial differentiator.
Why WP's Model Favours the Dodgers
With both starters posting nearly identical xFIP marks, the model's Confident lean toward Los Angeles is driven largely by team-level advantages. Consider the following:
- Dodgers wOBA: 0.329 vs. Marlins wOBA: 0.318 — Los Angeles carries a superior offensive profile, generating more value per plate appearance than Miami's lineup.
- Dodgers FIP: 3.89 vs. Marlins FIP: 4.20 — The Dodgers' pitching staff, as a whole, has been more efficient at preventing runs when luck and defense are removed from the equation.
- Dodgers ERA: 3.66 vs. Marlins ERA: 4.10 — Los Angeles has also delivered strong results in actual run prevention throughout the season, reinforcing the reliability of their pitching corps beyond just Sheehan.
The combination of a better offense and a more dominant pitching staff gives the Dodgers a meaningful edge even in a matchup where the starting pitchers are statistically neck-and-neck.
Injury Report
Injuries are always a factor in September, and both clubs are dealing with their share of absences heading into this contest.
Dodgers Injuries
- Edwin Díaz – Neck (15-Day IL): A key bullpen piece unavailable, which could affect late-game leverage situations.
- Kendall George – Knee (Out)
- Hyun-Seok Jang, Antonio Knowles, Sean McLain – All listed on the 7-Day IL with undisclosed injuries.
Marlins Injuries
- Xavier Edwards – Thumb (10-Day IL): A significant offensive piece missing from Miami's lineup.
- Anthony Bender – Lower Leg (15-Day IL): A bullpen arm unavailable for Miami's relief corps.
- Aiva Arquette, Nick Brink, Starlyn Caba – All on the 7-Day IL with undisclosed injuries.
The loss of Díaz is notable for the Dodgers, but Miami's bullpen and lineup are also compromised, particularly with Edwards sidelined.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Dodgers: Mookie Betts
Betts is never truly a "dark horse" in the traditional sense, but at any given price on the homer prop market, he represents strong value. His ability to elevate pitches and pull the ball with authority makes him a constant threat against any starter, including a capable arm like Pérez.
Marlins: Griffin Conine
For Miami, keep an eye on Griffin Conine as the dark horse long ball threat. If Conine can get into a hittable Sheehan pitch early in the count, he has the raw power to make the Dodgers pay in a hurry.
Final Prediction
WP Baseball Predictor issues a Confident pick on the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline. While Eury Pérez gives Miami a fighting chance on the mound, the Dodgers' superior team-wide offensive and pitching metrics make them the clear value play in this September matchup.