Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins Prediction – September 12, 2026
As the 2026 MLB season enters its final weeks, the Los Angeles Dodgers head to loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins in a late-season interleague showdown. With playoff positioning still in play, this is a game with real stakes — and the WP Baseball Predictor model has issued a Strong confidence pick on the Dodgers moneyline. Here's a full breakdown of what's driving that call.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Glasnow vs. Phillips
The pitching matchup is where this game's story begins — and where the Dodgers hold their clearest advantage.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD)
Tyler Glasnow takes the mound for Los Angeles carrying an impressive xFIP of 2.75, one of the most dominant marks a starting pitcher can post at any point in a season. xFIP — Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — strips away the noise of defense and batted-ball luck to measure a pitcher's true underlying performance. A 2.75 xFIP signals that Glasnow has been consistently missing bats and limiting hard contact, making him one of the most dangerous arms in the rotation on any given night. For Miami's lineup, this represents a formidable challenge heading into a crucial September contest.
Tyler Phillips (MIA)
The Marlins counter with Tyler Phillips, who carries an xFIP of 4.44 on the season. That figure places him firmly in the below-average tier among starting pitchers, suggesting the Dodgers' lineup should find opportunities to do damage. The gap between Glasnow's 2.75 and Phillips' 4.44 is significant — nearly a full run and a half — and represents one of the clearest pitching mismatches you'll find in a single game. Against a Los Angeles offense posting a team wOBA of 0.329, Phillips will need to be at his very best to keep this game within reach.
Why the WP Model Favours the Dodgers
The WP Baseball Predictor's Strong confidence designation on the Dodgers moneyline is built on several converging factors. The pitching edge provided by Glasnow is the headline, but the team-level numbers reinforce the lean. Los Angeles carries a team FIP of 3.89 and a team ERA of 3.65, both superior to Miami's FIP of 4.18 and ERA of 4.11. On the offensive side, the Dodgers' wOBA of 0.329 edges Miami's 0.317, indicating a more productive lineup overall. When you combine a dominant starting pitcher, a stronger offense, and better team-wide pitching metrics, the model's Strong pick on Los Angeles becomes well-supported across multiple dimensions.
Injury Report: What to Watch
Both clubs are navigating injury concerns heading into this contest.
Dodgers Injuries
- Edwin Diaz (Neck, 15-Day IL) – The bullpen takes a notable hit without the hard-throwing reliever available late in games.
- Kendall George (Knee, Out)
- Hyun-Seok Jang (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
- Antonio Knowles (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
- Sean McLain (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
Marlins Injuries
- Xavier Edwards (Thumb, 10-Day IL) – A key piece of the Miami lineup absent from the lineup card.
- Anthony Bender (Lower Leg, 15-Day IL)
- Nick Brink (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
- Starlyn Caba (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
- Colby Martin (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL)
Diaz's absence is the most meaningful impact on the Dodgers' side, potentially creating vulnerability in late-game leverage situations. For Miami, losing Edwards removes a productive bat from an already-challenged lineup facing Glasnow.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Dodgers: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts is our dark horse HR pick for Los Angeles. Facing a starter with a 4.44 xFIP, Betts has the combination of plate discipline and raw power to capitalize on any mistake in the zone. Keep an eye on him early in counts.
Marlins: Griffin Conine
On the Miami side, Griffin Conine is the name to watch for a potential long ball. Even against elite pitching like Glasnow, Conine's power tools give him the ceiling to turn on a fastball and surprise the Dodgers' bullpen if this game extends deep.
Final Prediction
With a dominant starting pitcher in Tyler Glasnow, superior team-wide metrics, and a lineup equipped to exploit Tyler Phillips, the Dodgers are the clear play here. The WP Baseball Predictor's Strong confidence pick on the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline is well-grounded. Back LA on September 12th.