Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – July 26, 2026
The Chicago Cubs make the trip to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates in what shapes up to be one of the tighter MLB matchups on the Sunday slate. According to the WP Baseball Predictor model, the Pirates hold a slim 51.9% win probability at home, while the Cubs come in at 48.1%. With no strong favourite identified, this game is essentially a coin flip — but WP's model lands on Cubs +1.5 as the value pick of the day.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Taillon vs Ashcraft
The pitching matchup is where this game gets interesting, and it's fair to say the numbers heavily favour Pittsburgh on paper.
Jameson Taillon (Cubs)
Taillon takes the mound for Chicago carrying an xFIP of 5.06, a figure that signals genuine concern about his underlying performance metrics. An xFIP north of 5.00 suggests Taillon has been susceptible to hard contact and has struggled to generate the kind of outcomes that keep runs off the board. Against a Pirates lineup boasting a team wOBA of .329, Taillon will need to be at his sharpest to navigate deep into this game.
Braxton Ashcraft (Pirates)
On the other side, Pirates right-hander Braxton Ashcraft presents a dramatically different profile. His xFIP of 3.41 is an impressive mark that indicates strong peripherals and a genuine ability to suppress offense. Facing a Cubs lineup with a team wOBA of .328 — nearly identical to Pittsburgh's — Ashcraft has the tools to keep Chicago's bats quiet. The gap between the two starters' xFIPs is significant and goes a long way toward explaining why Pittsburgh is the narrow favourite in this contest.
Why WP's Model Backs the Cubs +1.5
Despite Ashcraft's pitching advantage, the WP Baseball Predictor model identifies value on the Cubs at the run line rather than on the money line. Here's the reasoning:
- The Cubs' team ERA of 4.19 compares favourably to Pittsburgh's 4.30, suggesting Chicago's bullpen and overall staff can keep games competitive even when the starter struggles.
- The Cubs carry a team FIP of 4.77 versus Pittsburgh's 4.01, meaning Pittsburgh's pitching staff projects as the stronger unit overall — but the run line cushion of +1.5 absorbs the risk of a close Cubs loss.
- With win probabilities this close at 48.1% vs 51.9%, the Cubs +1.5 offers a sensible way to back Chicago's competitiveness without needing them to win outright.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Watch
Both clubs are managing notable injury lists heading into Sunday's game.
Cubs Injuries
- Ben Brown (Neck, 15-Day IL) – Pitching depth takes a hit.
- Juan Cabada (Lower Body, Out) – Unavailable for this contest.
- Edward Cabrera (Hamstring, 15-Day IL) – Further thins Chicago's rotation depth.
- Riley Martin (Elbow, 15-Day IL) – Sidelined.
- Phil Maton (Knee, 15-Day IL) – Bullpen depth a concern for the Cubs.
Pirates Injuries
- Spencer Horwitz (Hamstring, 10-Day IL) – Offensive loss for Pittsburgh.
- Tony Blanco (Hamstring, 7-Day IL), Rafael Flores (Concussion, 7-Day IL), Jaiker Garcia (Undisclosed, 7-Day IL), and Zander Mueth (Shoulder, 7-Day IL) – A cluster of short-term absences that affects Pittsburgh's roster flexibility.
The volume of pitching injuries on the Cubs side is particularly notable and could expose a thinner bullpen if Taillon exits early.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every slate has its longshot power options worth monitoring, and Sunday's game is no different.
- Michael Conforto (Cubs) – Conforto is WP's dark horse HR pick for Chicago. A veteran with legitimate pull-side power, Conforto could punish a mistake pitch from Ashcraft if he gets one to his liking.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (Pirates) – Pittsburgh's dark horse pick, Valdez has the raw pop to catch lightning in a bottle against Taillon, whose xFIP of 5.06 suggests he is capable of surrendering damage in any given at-bat.
Final Prediction
Braxton Ashcraft's elite xFIP gives Pittsburgh a real edge in this matchup, but the WP Baseball Predictor model finds the most value in backing the Cubs +1.5. With the game projected this close and Chicago's lineup capable of keeping pace, the run line cushion makes this the smart play on Sunday at PNC Park.
WP Pick: Cubs +1.5