Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – July 25, 2026
The Chicago Cubs make the trip to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in what shapes up to be one of the more intriguing pitching matchups of the mid-summer schedule. With the WP Baseball Predictor model narrowly siding with the Pirates as home favorites, bettors and fans alike should pay close attention to every layer of this contest before first pitch.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: Imanaga vs Skenes
The headliner here is the pitching duel between two of the more compelling arms in the National League. Paul Skenes takes the mound for Pittsburgh carrying an outstanding xFIP of 2.88, a figure that places him firmly among the elite starters in the game right now. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching strips away the noise of defense and luck, and Skenes' number suggests he is genuinely limiting hard contact and generating weak outcomes at a premium level. The Pirates will lean heavily on their ace to set the tone early and keep the Cubs' offense quiet.
For Chicago, Shota Imanaga counters with an xFIP of 3.99 — a respectable mark that reflects a capable, competitive starter, though there is a meaningful gap between the two pitchers by this measure. Imanaga will need his best stuff to keep Pittsburgh's lineup off the bases, particularly given that the Pirates carry a slightly stronger offensive profile heading into this game.
Why WP's Model Favors the Cubs +1.5
Despite the Pirates holding a 52.5% win probability against the Cubs' 47.5%, the WP Baseball Predictor's official pick lands on Cubs +1.5. This is a classic run-line value play. When a matchup is this close — no strong favorite is flagged — backing the underdog with the extra cushion of 1.5 runs provides meaningful insurance against a narrow Pirates victory.
The team stats reinforce just how tight this contest figures to be. Pittsburgh holds a slight offensive edge with a team wOBA of 0.331 compared to Chicago's 0.327, and the Pirates' team FIP of 4.02 betters the Cubs' 4.8, suggesting Pittsburgh's pitching staff as a whole has been generating better underlying results. Both clubs share an identical team ERA of 4.23. These numbers paint a picture of two evenly matched rosters where margins will be razor thin — exactly the kind of game where the +1.5 line carries real value.
Injury Report: Key Absences to Monitor
Both rosters are navigating notable injury attrition heading into Saturday's game.
Cubs Injuries
- Ben Brown – 15-Day IL (Neck)
- Juan Cabada – Out (Lower Body)
- Edward Cabrera – 15-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Riley Martin – 15-Day IL (Elbow)
- Phil Maton – 15-Day IL (Knee)
Chicago's bullpen depth is the primary concern, with multiple relief arms sidelined simultaneously. If Imanaga labors into the middle innings, manager options out of the pen may be limited, leaving the Cubs potentially vulnerable late in the game.
Pirates Injuries
- Tony Blanco – 7-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Rafael Flores – 7-Day IL (Concussion)
- Jaiker Garcia – 7-Day IL (Undisclosed)
- Spencer Horwitz – 10-Day IL (Hamstring)
- Zander Mueth – 7-Day IL (Shoulder)
Pittsburgh's absence list is concentrated in bench and roster depth rather than front-line contributors, which should limit the overall impact on the Pirates' starting lineup construction for this contest.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Looking for home run value beyond the obvious power threats? These two names are worth adding to your prop watch list on Saturday.
Cubs: Michael Conforto
Conforto is the dark horse HR pick for Chicago. A seasoned veteran with proven power capability, he has the swing profile to exploit a mistake pitch even against a premium arm like Skenes. One slip in the zone could be all Conforto needs.
Pirates: Esmerlyn Valdez
On the Pittsburgh side, Esmerlyn Valdez earns the dark horse designation. Playing at home with the crowd behind him, Valdez represents a sneaky power threat at a price point that could offer strong return value on the HR prop market.
Final Prediction
This is a close game by every metric available. Skenes' elite underlying numbers give Pittsburgh a real edge, but the Cubs +1.5 run line offers enough margin to make Chicago the smart play. WP Baseball Predictor Pick: Cubs +1.5.