Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction: August 20, 2026
The St. Louis Cardinals make the trip to Cincinnati to face the Reds on August 20, 2026, in a National League Central matchup with real playoff implications. WP Baseball Predictor has crunched the numbers and lands firmly on the Cardinals moneyline, assigning St. Louis a 62.2% win probability against Cincinnati's 37.8%. Here's a full breakdown of why the model favors the Cardinals and what to watch when first pitch is thrown.
Starting Pitcher Matchup: McGreevy vs. Singer
The pitching matchup sits at the heart of this analysis, and the edge belongs clearly to St. Louis on paper.
Michael McGreevy (Cardinals)
McGreevy takes the mound for St. Louis carrying an xFIP of 4.15. Expected Fielding Independent Pitching strips out defense and luck to project a pitcher's true performance level, and McGreevy's mark reflects a capable, above-average starter who limits the kind of hard contact that burns pitchers over a long season. He gives the Cardinals a reliable foundation to build a victory on in what is a critical late-August stretch.
Brady Singer (Reds)
Singer counters for Cincinnati with an xFIP of 4.64, a figure that tells a concerning story about his underlying performance. The half-run gap between Singer and McGreevy in xFIP is meaningful — it signals that Singer has been more susceptible to quality contact and is at greater risk of allowing runs as the game progresses. For a Reds team already fighting from behind in this matchup, Singer's profile adds additional uncertainty.
The pitching edge goes to St. Louis, and it is one of the primary drivers behind the WP model's projection.
Team Performance: Cardinals Hold the Edge Across the Board
Beyond the starting pitchers, the underlying team metrics paint a consistent picture in favor of St. Louis.
- Cardinals wOBA: 0.306 vs. Reds wOBA: 0.303 — St. Louis holds a slight edge in offensive production quality.
- Cardinals FIP: 4.14 vs. Reds FIP: 4.72 — St. Louis pitching staff has been significantly more efficient when controlling for defense.
- Cardinals ERA: 4.01 vs. Reds ERA: 4.48 — The Cardinals' staff has also delivered better actual results on the mound this season.
When a team leads in offense, team pitching efficiency, and actual run prevention simultaneously, the WP model responds accordingly. The Cardinals' 62.2% win probability reflects a team that is simply performing better in more categories heading into this game.
Injury Report: Reds Hit Harder by Absences
Injuries are a factor tonight, and Cincinnati is carrying the heavier burden heading into this contest.
Cardinals Injuries
- Travis Honeyman — Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
Reds Injuries
- Julian Aguiar — Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Jose Franco — Forearm, 7-Day IL
- Garrett Hampson — Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Leibrandt — Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Tony Santillan — Oblique, 15-Day IL
Cincinnati's injury list is notably longer, with five players currently sidelined. Roster depth becomes a critical factor in late-game situations, and the Reds' bullpen and bench options are stretched thin. This further tilts the competitive balance toward St. Louis tonight.
Dark Horse Home Run Picks
Every game has a player capable of changing the story with one swing. Here are tonight's dark horse home run candidates to keep an eye on:
- Joshua Báez (Cardinals) — Báez is the sleeper pick on the St. Louis side. Should he get a favorable count against Singer, he has the raw power to make Cincinnati pay in a big way.
- JJ Bleday (Reds) — Bleday is Cincinnati's best long-ball threat in this spot. If the Reds are going to claw back into this game, a Bleday home run is one of the more realistic paths to doing so.
Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction
With a superior pitching matchup, stronger team-wide metrics across offense and pitching, and a significantly lighter injury load, the St. Louis Cardinals are the clear play tonight in Cincinnati. WP Baseball Predictor's pick: Cardinals moneyline, 62.2% win probability. Back St. Louis with confidence on August 20, 2026.